[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Nate is centered near 30.5N 88.9W at 08/0600 UTC or
about 5 nm N of Biloxi, Mississippi. Nate is moving north at 17
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 95 kt. Numerous
strong convection is from 29N-32N between 86W-90W. A feeder band
is to the southeast of this activity affecting the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and far NW Caribbean. See the latest NHC Intermediate
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and
the full Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

A stationary 1009 mb low pressure is located over the central
Atlantic near 32N39W. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone
for the next day or so while the system drifts toward the
southwest or south. After that time, strong upper-level winds are
expected to limit further development. There is a high
chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 16N20W
to 03N18W, moving W at 5 kt. Satellite derived data indicate the
northern half of the wave is in a strong vertical shear region
while the southern half is in a low shear environment. Enhanced IR
satellite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust in the northern
wave envronment as well. This is limiting the convection to the
vicinity of the monsoon trough where numerous moderate convection
and scattered tstms are underneath a region of upper level diffluence
from 10N-13N between 16W-19W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1012 mb
low located near 09N45W, which is expected to move WNW towards
09N47W within the next 24 hours. The wave axis extends from
15N42W to the low center to 04N45W, and has been moving W at 5 kt.
The wave is in a region of mainly strong vertical wind shear and
is experiencing dry air intrusion to its environment as indicated
by CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels. This is limiting
convection to isolated moderate from 10N-16N between 40W-48W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
19N52W to 08N55W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a
region of mainly strong vertical wind shear. Shallow moisture in
the wave environment along with middle level diffluence support
scattered moderate convection from 12N-16N between 50W-54W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
06N23W to 04N31W. The ITCZ extends from 04N31W to 06N42W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-07N between 24W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Nate made landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi at 0530 UTC
as category one hurricane with a pressure of 984 mb. For the
latest information see the special features section. Storm surge
warnings have been issued for the eastern Gulf coastline. Please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. At this time, Hurricane Nate
is the sole source of weather across the eastern basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Nate's feeder band extends over the NW Caribbean waters
N of 15N W of 76W. To the east, isolated showers are over Hispaniola
and adjacent waters in part being supported by a surface trough
over the SW N Atlc. This activity is forecast to continue through
Sunday. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin.
Expect convection over the NW Caribbean persist through Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are over Hispaniola and adjacent waters in part
being supported by a surface trough over the SW N Atlc. This
activity is forecast to continue through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section
above for details. In the west Atlantic waters, a surface trough
extends from 27N67W to 20N70W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted to the east of the boundary from 20N-25N between 63W-69W. A
cold front extends from 30N30W to 21N40W with scattered showers
and tstms within 30 nm either side of the boundary. A surface
ridge prevails elsewhere anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near
35N54W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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