[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
151 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Nate is centered near 27.6N 88.9W at 07/1800 UTC or
about 91 nm south of the mouth of the Mississippi river. Nate is
moving north-northwest at 23 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with
gusts to 95 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 25N-29N between
86W-90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
elsewhere from 23N-29N between 85W-92W. A feeder band is SE of the
center with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from
18N-24N between 82W-85W. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the
full Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC for more details.

A non-tropical 1009 mb low pressure is located over the central
Atlantic near 33N39W. This low is beginning to acquire
subtropical characteristics, and environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical or
subtropical cyclone during the next day or so while the low drifts
toward the southwest. Thereafter, the atmosphere is expected to
become hostile for further development. There is a high
probability for tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical is off the coast of Africa with axis from 11N15W to
01N14W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by
SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb tough are both well
defined. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-11N between
10W-22W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 15N41W
to an embedded 1010 mb low near 09N43W, to 05N43W. The wave is
moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a very moist area as noted by
SSMI TPW imagery. A 700 mb tough is well defined. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 10N-14N between 40W-45W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 19N50W
to 14N53W to 08N54W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist
area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb tough are
both well defined. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-16N
between 50W-55W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
10N20W to 06N23W to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to
08N41W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave at 08N45W to
08N49W to 10N53W. The ITCZ continues W of another tropical wave
at 11N55W to 11N61W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is over the
Windward Islands from 10N-14N between 59W-63W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Nate is moving quickly towards the Gulf Coast. See
above. Additional strengthening is expected before landfall.
Storm surge warnings have also been issued with life-threatening
potential. Please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Hurricane Nate
is the sole source of precipitation in the Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Nate feeder band extends over W Cuba and the NW
Caribbean, and has been over the same area for a long period of
time. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
18N-24N between 82W-85W. The Atlantic ITCZ is producing scattered
moderate convection into the Windward Islands from 10N-14N
between 59W- 63W. Elsewhere, the eastern extent of the Pacific
monsoon trough is producing scattered showers over Costa Rica, and
the SW Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is
over the central Caribbean along 75W. Expect convection over the
NW Caribbean to persist for the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over E Hispaniola due to a surface trough NE
of the island. Expect these showers to persist for the next 24
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. See above. In
the SW N Atlc waters, a surface trough extends from 27N69W to
20N69W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
20N-29N between 61W-68W. Elsewhere, a cold front extends from
31N33W to 28N34W to 22N42W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm E of the front. A 1021 mb high is centered over
the E Atlantic near 28N29W. Of note in the upper levels, a small
upper level low is centered E of the Bahamas near 26N70W. Upper
level diffluence E of the center is enhancing convection. Another
upper level low is centered near 32N38W also enhancing convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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