[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic extends from 15N32W to
04N35W moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave remains low amplitude and
coincides with modest troughing at 700 mb. Satellite TPW imagery
indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N-14N
between 30W-36W.

A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles extends from
22N55W to 09N57W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with
broad troughing at 700 mb. The wave continues to interact with
an upper-level low that has been moving in tandem with the wave
and is currently centered near 18N59W. Divergent upper-level
winds on the east side of the upper-level low are supporting a
large area of widely scattered moderate to strong convection
from 09N-22N between 44W-55W.

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean along 76W/77W extends
from 07N-18N moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with
troughing at 700 mb. This wave is also interacting with an upper-
level low currently centered south of Jamaica near 16N78W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N-17N
between 71W-77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
09N13W to 08N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 08N19W to 09N34W to 11N55W. Isolated convection is over W
Africa from 05N-12N between 09W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 25N93W to
17N93W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
trough. Satellite TPW imagery shows extensive moisture over the
Gulf W of 89W. Expect over the next 24 hours a surface trough to
persist over the Bay of Campeche with convection. In addition,
expect surface ridging to build over the northern and central
Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with a good amount
of convection, see above. In addition, the eastern extent of the
E Pacific monsoon trough extends from S Guatemala to Costa Rica
to N Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
over Central America S of 20N. Otherwise, 10-20 kt trade winds
are over the Caribbean with strongest winds in the NW Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

The island is SE of a tropical wave and upper low. Minimal
convection remains over the island. Expect mostly fair weather
and isolated showers today as the wave moves further W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A fast-moving surface trough is approaching S Florida along 79W
from 24W-28W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough.
A stationary front is over the west-central Atlantic from 31N55W
to 26N70W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
of the front. Broad surface ridging extending SW from a 1027 mb
high centered over the Azores dominates the Atlantic N of 22N
and E of 53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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