[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A tropical wave extends from 08N80W to 20N79W moving W at 10 kt.
This wave is also interacting with an upper level low centered
near 15N80W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 08N-14N between 76W-83W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 08N-20N between 71W-82W. Recent scatterometer and
surface data indicates an a 1009 mb low has developed this morning
along the wave axis near 12N81W. Given the persistent strong
convection...and gradual organization anticipated...the low has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next
couple of days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 09N35W to 15N33W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave remains low amplitude and coincides with subtle
troughing at 700 mb between 31W-38W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 11N-14N between 29W-37W.

A tropical wave extends from 08N54W to 23N57W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 52W-
62W and continues to interact with an upper-level low centered
near 17N62W. Divergent upper-level winds on the east side of the
upper low are supporting widely scattered moderate convection
from 10N-22N between 51W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N14W to
08N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N18W to 09N30W to 07N41W to 07N49W. Besides the convection
associated with the tropical waves...scattered moderate convection
is from 04N-08N between 15W-21W...and from 08N-17N between 38W-
51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level anticyclone is
centered over the western Gulf waters near 25N95W with ridging
extending E-SE to over western Cuba. The ridging aloft
supports surface ridging across the basin anchored by a strong
1040 mb high centered over New England. In addition...a middle to
upper level low is centered near 18N99W within the southern
periphery of the upper level ridge supporting a surface trough
extending from NE Mexico near 25N98W into a 1006 mb low centered
near 19N94W. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms are
occurring S of 25N W of 93W across the SW Gulf and portions of
coastal Mexico. Otherwise...the surface ridging in place is
generating fresh to strong easterly winds across the northern two-
thirds of the basin that are forecast to persist through Wednesday
night. By Wednesday night into Thursday...an area of low pressure
is anticipated to develop across the Florida Straits and southern
Florida peninsula. Regardless of possible tropical cyclone
development...the area of low pressure is expected to bring
increased cloudiness and convective precipitation to the Florida
peninsula and SE Gulf late this week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Primary focus remains across the western Caribbean as a tropical
wave analyzed along 80W continues to work in tandem with an upper
level low centered near 15N80W generating scattered to numerous
showers and scattered strong tstms across the SW Caribbean S of
14N between 76W-83W. Elsewhere...scattered showers and tstms are
occurring mainly E of the wave axis from 12N-21N between 71W-81W.
Convection occurring across the SW Caribbean also remains
influenced by the monsoon trough axis extending from northern
Colombia to central Nicaragua. Otherwise...farther east...another
tropical wave is analyzed along 57W and continues to approach the
Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from
10N-14N between 55W-61W. The wave will move across the eastern
Caribbean through Wednesday. Finally...moderate to occasional
fresh trades are expected to persist through Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently skies remain mostly fair across interior portions with
cloudiness and scattered showers and tstms occurring across the
southern and southwestern coastal waters as a tropical wave...
currently along 80W...continues to move W and exit the region.
Clear skies lie to the east as northerly flow aloft prevails. The
next tropical wave is expected to approach the region by late
Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A fast-moving surface trough is analyzed across the southern and
central Florida peninsula along 81W and is producing widely
scattered showers and isolated tstms within 120 nm either side of
the boundary. This surface trough is a piece of energy fractured
west from a frontal boundary impacting a large portion of the SW
North Atlc. A cold front extends into the discussion area near
32N52W to 29N57W then becomes stationary to 27N64W to 26N74W.
Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 22N-30N between
55W-75W...and within 120 nm either side of the cold front N of
30N. In addition...a fractured piece of tropical wave energy is
analyzed as a surface trough from the tail end of the stationary
front near 26N75W to central Cuba near 21N78W. Scattered showers
and tstms are occurring from 21N-28N between 75W-79W. This area
focused around the surface trough continues to provide heavy
rainfall and convective precipitation across the Bahamas which is
forecast to move west and impact the Florida peninsula through
Thursday. Elsewhere...a broad surface ridge axis extends SW from
the Azores near 38N29W to 26N54W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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