[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic extends from 14N30W to
05N32W moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave remains low amplitude and
coincides with modest troughing at 700 mb. Satellite TPW imagery
indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 29W-
35W. Isolated showers elsewhere within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave over the Central Atlantic extends from 21N54W to
08N55W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with broad
troughing at 700 mb. The wave continues to interact with an
upper-level low that has been moving in tandem with the wave and
is currently centered near 21N53W. Divergent upper-level winds
on the east side of the upper-level low are supporting a large
area of widely scattered moderate convection from 09N-22N
between 42W-53W.

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean extends from 18N78W
to 07N80W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with
pronounced troughing at 700 mb. This wave is also interacting
with an upper-level low currently centered south of Jamaica near
16N77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
07N-16N between 72W-82W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 16N-22N between 75W-79W including Jamaica and W Cuba.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N14W to 09N31W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 09N33W to 10N55W
to 09N61W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over W
Africa from 07N-15N between 09W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is just off the coast of Texas from 30N94W to
27N95W moving W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within
60 nm of the trough. Further south, a surface trough is over the
SW Gulf of Mexico from 25N93W to 17N93W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the trough. In the upper levels, a
small upper level low is centered over the S Mexico near 18N95W.
A good amount of upper level moisture is over the Gulf E of 96W.
Expect over the next 24 hours for more showers to advect over S
Florida. Also expect a surface trough to persist over the Bay of
Campeche with convection. In addition, expect surface ridging to
build over the northern and central Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with a good amount
of convection, see above. In addition, the eastern extent of the
E Pacific monsoon trough extends from S Guatemala to Costa Rica
to N Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
over Central America S of 20N. Otherwise, 10-20 kt trade winds
are over the Caribbean with strongest winds in the NW Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

The island is SE of a tropical wave and upper low. Scattered
moderate convection remains over the island. Expect clearing
over the Dominican Republic in 24 hours as the system moves W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the N Bahamas from 28N75W to 24N77W
moving W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A
stationary front is over the west-central Atlantic from 31N56W
to 26N68W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
of the front. Broad surface ridging extending SW from a 1029 mb
high centered over the Azores dominates the Atlantic N of 22N
and E of 53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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