[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
719 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic extends from 14N28W to
05N28W moving W at 25 kt. The wave remains low amplitude and
coincides with modest troughing at 700 mb. Satellite TPW imagery
indicates this wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between
27W-32W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave over the Central Atlantic extends from 21N53W to
08N52W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad troughing
at 700 mb. The wave continues to interact with an upper-level low
that has been moving in tandem with the wave and is currently
centered near 19N52W. Divergent upper-level winds on the east
side of the upper-level low are supporting a large area of widely
scattered moderate convection from 10N-20N between 43W-53W.

A tropical wave over the Central Caribbean extends from 17N76W to
07N78W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with pronounced
troughing at 700 mb. This wave is also interacting with an upper-
level low currently centered south of Jamaica near 17N77W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N-16N
between 75W-82W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
16N-22N between 75W-79W to include Jamaica and W Cuba.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 07N27W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 07N27W to 06N31W to
07N40W to 11N51W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 10N54W
to 09N61W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over W
Africa from 10N-15N between 10W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from S Florida near 25N80W
to SE Louisiana near 30N90W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is within 90 nm of the front. Elsewhere, a surface trough is just
off the coast of Texas from 30N94W to 27N95W moving W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough.
Further S, a surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico from
26N93W to 18N93W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of
this trough. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is
centered over the S Mexico near 19N94W. A good amount of upper
level moisture is over the Gulf E of 96W. Expect over the next 24
hours for more showers to advect over S Florida. Also expect a
surface trough to persist over the Bay of Campeche with
convection. In addition, expect surface ridging to build over the
northern and central Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave and an upper level low are over the central
Caribbean with a good amount of convection. See above. In
addition, the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough
extends from S Guatemala to N Costa Rica to N Colombia. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over all of Central
America S of 20N. Otherwise, 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the
Caribbean with strongest winds over the NW Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently the island is on the back side of a tropical wave and
upper level low. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
remains over the island. Expect gradual clearing over the
Dominican Republic in 24 hours as the system moves W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the N Bahamas from 28N74W to 24N76W
moving W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. The
tail end of a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N57W to
28N62W. A stationary front continues to 27N70W. widely scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the fronts. Broad surface
ridging extends SW from a 1028 mb surface high centered over the
Azores near 38N27W. The ridging dominates the Atlantic N of 22N
and E of 53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net