[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1221 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 47.0N 45.5W at 09/1500 UTC
or about 310 nm E of Cape Race Newfoundland and about 1285 nm SW
of Reykjavik Iceland moving NE at 35 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 46N-
49N between 40W-44W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
09N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N18W to 08N24W to 10N28W then resumes near 10N34W to 07N40W to
06N56W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-06N between
05W-14W...and from 03N-07N between 33W-40W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 09N-16N between 18W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level trough is progressing eastward over the
lower Mississippi River valley and NW Gulf waters this afternoon
supporting a cold front extending from the Florida Big Bend region
near 30N83W into a weak 1016 mb low centered near 26N96W then
southward to the Mexico coast near 21N97W. Widely scattered
showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 90 nm either side
of the front and across the SW Gulf in the vicinity of a surface
trough analyzed from 24N95W to 20N92W. Otherwise...gentle to
moderate northerly winds prevail S of the frontal boundary...
while fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted N of the front and N-NW
winds are noted W of the front. The front will be slow to move
southeastward through tomorrow and likely stall from the southern
Florida peninsula into the SW Gulf waters near 18N94W. Fresh to
occasional strong NE winds are expected on Saturday across much
of the basin with the exception of N-NW winds within 90 nm of the
coast of Mexico S of 25N. High pressure will build in through the
weekend across the SE CONUS...increasing E-NE winds across the
eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Generally broad lower pressure is noted across much of the
Caribbean this afternoon focused on a 1007 mb low centered near
12N76W off the coast of northern Colombia. A surface trough
extending N-NE from the low to the Windward Passage near 20N74W.
Water vapor imagery indicates the surface low and troughing is
supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough with axis
extending from over the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba to a base
near 16N81W. Low-level convergence primarily E of the surface
trough and upper level divergence E of the upper level feature is
generating scattered showers and tstms from 13N-18N between 63W-
76W. In addition...scattered showers and tstms are occurring
across the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 74W-84W. Otherwise...W of
the surface trough...gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail
while moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevail E of the surface
trough. This overall broad area of lower pressure across the basin
is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
Surface troughing extends from the Windward Passage region S-SW
into the SW Caribbean Sea supported aloft by an upper level trough
with axis extending from over the SE Bahamas southwestward to a
base near 16N81W. Low-level moisture convergence is maximized E of
the surface troughing with scattered showers and tstms occurring
across a large area from 13N-24N between 63W-74W. This convection
will likely persist for the next 48 hours with the potential for
localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides...especially if
stronger convection develops during peak daytime heating and
instability.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a couple locations of mid-level
shortwave trough energy extending from over the mid-Atlc coast SW
to over Alabama and finally the NW Gulf of Mexico waters. The
troughing supports a cold front analyzed from 32N73W to the
Florida coast near Jacksonville and into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. A weak pre-frontal surface trough extends from the cold
front near 30N79W to near Port Everglades with isolated showers
and tstms occurring N of 28N W of 72W. Farther east...another
surface trough extends from 23N67W to 28N64W within the southern
periphery of a ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high near 30N63W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 19N-24N
between 62W-72W. Across the central Atlc...an upper level trough
axis extends along 47W supporting a surface trough extending from
22N51W to 26N48W to 31N48W with widely scattered showers and
isolated tstms occurring N of 25N between 43W-46W. To the NE of
this convection...a surface ridge holds anchored by a strong 1042
mb high centered N-NE of the Azores near 45N22W. The influence of
the ridging covers much of the eastern Atlc N of 15N with NE
winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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