[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
08N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N23W to
08N27W, then resumes from 09N32W to 05N52W. Surface trough extends
from 14N26W to 08N30W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
along the monsoon trough while isolated showers prevail within 200
nm on either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper-level trough is progressing eastward over the NW
Gulf waters supporting a cold front extending from the Florida
Big Bend region near 30N83W into a 1017 mb surface low near
26N96W then southward to the Mexico coast near 20N97W. Scattered
showers are noted along the front and near the low. A surface
trough extends from 23N95W to 21N92W. Gentle to moderate northerly
winds prevail south of the frontal boundary, while fresh to
strong northeast winds are noted north of the front. Northwest
winds are noted west of the front. Expect for the front to move
slowly southeastward through tomorrow and likely stall from the
southern Florida peninsula into the southwest Gulf waters near
18N94W. Fresh to occasional strong northeast winds are expected
on Saturday across much of the basin with the exception of
northwest winds within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico south of 25N.
High pressure will build in through the weekend across the
southeast CONUS, increasing northeast winds across the eastern
Gulf and Florida peninsula into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of low pressure is noted across much of the basin
focused on a 1006 mb low centered near 14N77W. A surface trough
extends from the low to the Windward Passage. Water vapor imagery
indicates the surface low and trough are supported aloft by a
mid to upper-level trough with axis extending from over the
southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba to a base near 16N81W. Low-
level convergence primarily east of the surface trough and upper
level divergence east of the upper-level feature is generating
scattered moderate convection between 68W-78W. To the south, the
monsoon trough extends along 11N between 77W-82W supporting
scattered showers in this area. Scatterometer data depicts gentle
to moderate northerly winds west of the surface trough while
moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail east of the trough. This
overall broad area of lower pressure across the basin is expected
to persist through the upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Surface troughing extends from the Windward Passage region into
the southwest Caribbean supported aloft by an upper-level trough
with axis extending from over the southern Bahamas southwestward
to a base near 16N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring between 68W-78W affecting the southern portion of the
island. This activity will likely persist for the next 48 hours
with the potential for localized flooding and life-threatening mud
slides, especially if stronger convection develops during peak
daytime heating and instability.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends north of the area in the west Atlantic
supporting scattered showers mainly west of 70W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 30N78W to 27N80W with isolated showers. To the
east, another surface trough extends from 28N64W to 23N70W with
scattered showers along and east of the trough south of 24N. An
upper level low across the central Atlantic is reflected at the
surface as a trough extending from 31N48W to 22N51W. Scattered
showers are noted along the trough. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1042 mb high
centered over the northeast Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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