[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
601 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 44.5N 47.0W at 09/0900 UTC,
or about 290 nm ESE of Cape Race Newfoundland and about 980 nm WNW
of the Azores, moving NNE at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is present from 44N to 46N between 45W and 47W. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea on the coast of W Africa
near 10N14W to 09N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
continues from 09N16W to 07N30W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 15N between 20W and
29W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 05N to 09N
between 30W and 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As cold front crosses the northern Gulf from near Apalachicola in
the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to 27N94W to just north of
Tampico Mexico near 23N98W. A weak trough extends over the Bay of
campeche from 21N94W to 22.5N95.5W. No significant deep convection
is noted along the front or in the vicinity of the trough.
Otherwise, deep layer ridging prevailing over the remainder of the
basin is promoting fair weather. Satellite-derived wind data show
gentle to moderate NE to E winds cover the Gulf south of the
front while fresh to strong northerly winds prevail west of the
front. Expect for the front in 24 hours to extend from near Tampa
Florida to near 24N95W in the NW Gulf to SE of Veracruz Mexico
near 19N95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough supporting convection extends from the Windward
Passage near 20N74W to 15N76W to low pres 1006 mb on the N coast
of Colombia near 10N75W. An upper-level low is centered over
Jamaica. Upper-level diffluence E of the low is enhancing the
convection over the central Caribbean as well. Numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection is observed from 15N to 17N
between 69W and 72W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is taking place elsewhere S of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola from 15N to 18N between 64W and 72W and from 11N to 15N
between 70W and 72W. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are
evident over the Caribbean to the east of the trough while
moderate N to NE winds cover the remainder of the basin W of the
trough. Farther S, the E Pacific monsoon trough crosses Costa Rica
and Panama to end in NW Colombia near 10N74W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is present along the coasts of
Panama and Colombia south of 10N. Expect in 24 hours for the low
to slowly move north within the surface trough N of Colombia as
the synoptic environment continues to support deep convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends S from the Windward passage to the coast
of northern Colombia. In addition upper level divergence remains
in place over the island. Deep convection is affecting most of
Hispaniola, especially the eastern half of the Dominican Republic.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to persist over the island for
the next 48 hours with the potential of localized flooding and
life-threatening mud slides, especially if stronger convection
develops during daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for more information on
Tropical Storm Rina. In the W Atlantic, a weak surface trough
possessing no significant convection extends from the northern
Bahamas near 27N78W to 28N77W. A 1018 mb high is centered over the
W Atlantic near 30N59W. Another weak surface trough with no
significant convection passes over the tropical Atlantic from
22N49W to 27N48W. Of note in the upper levels, the upper level low
centered over E Cuba is producing divergent upper-level winds as
far N as 23N and as far E as 63W. Isolated moderate convection is
taking place over and N of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola from 18N to 22N between 64W and 71W. Expect the cold
front presently over the Gulf of Mexico to reach the W Atlantic on
Thu and the northern Bahamas on Fri. Also expect the Jamaica
upper level low to slowly drift SE, then NE to the S Bahamas
during the next 24 hours, with continued showers and thunderstorms
N of the Leeward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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