[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1219 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 42.5N 48.3W at 09/0300 UTC,
or about 325 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving north at 20
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 42N to 44N between 46W and
49W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of W
Africa near 08N18W to 06N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
continues from 06N27W to 08N35W to 04N44W to the coast of South
America near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is seen from 10N to 13N between 20W and 31W, and from
05N to 08N between 30W and 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As cold front crosses the northern Gulf from near Apalachicola in
the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to 27N95W to the Tamaulipas
coast of Mexico near 25N97W. No significant deep convection is
noted along the front. Otherwise, deep layer ridging prevailing
over the remainder of the basin is promoting fair weather.
Satellite-derived wind data show gentle to moderate NE to E winds
cover the Gulf south of the front while fresh to strong northerly
winds prevail west of the front. Expect for the front in 24 hours
to extend from near Tampa Florida to near 24N96W in the NW Gulf to
near Veracruz Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from Haiti near 19N72W to the coast of N
Colombia near 11N74.5W, then inland over Colombia to 07N73W. An
upper-level low is centered over E Cuba near 20N77W. Upper level
diffluence E of the low is enhancing the convection over the
central Caribbean as well. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is observed from 12N to 15N between 70W and 74W. Fresh
to locally strong E to SE winds are evident over the Caribbean to
the east of the trough while moderate NE winds cover the remainder
of the basin W of the trough. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is found over and S of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola from 15N to 20N between 65W and 72W. Farther S, the E
Pacific monsoon trough crosses Costa Rica and Panama to end in NW
Colombia near 08N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present along the coasts of Panama and Colombia from
09N to 11N between 74W and 80W. Expect in 24 hours for a low to
form within the surface trough off the coast of N Colombia near
14N77W as the synoptic environment continues to support deep
convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends S from Haiti to the coast of northern
Colombia. In addition upper level diffluence remains in place over
the island. Deep convection is affecting all of Hispaniola,
especially the Dominican Republic. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to persist over the island for the next 48 hours
with the potential of localized flooding and life- threatening mud
slides, especially of the stronger convection over the adjacent
waters to the south moves north.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for more information on
Tropical Storm Rina. In the W Atlantic, a weak surface trough
extends from the northern Bahamas near 27N77W to just N of eastern
Cuba near 21N76W. Isolated showers are noted over the central and
southern Bahamas. A 1019 mb high is over the W Atlantic near
31N61W. Another surface trough passes over the tropical Atlantic
from 26N48W to 18N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is observed from 24N to 30N between 45W and 47W. Of
note in the upper levels, the upper level low centered over E Cuba
is producing divergent upper-level winds as far E as 60W.
Isolated moderate convection is taking place over and N of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from 20N to 22N between
63W and 70W. Expect the cold front presently over the Gulf of
Mexico to reach the W Atlantic on Thu and the northern Bahamas on
Fri. Also expect the E Cuba upper level low to drift NE to the S
Bahamas during the next 24 hours, with continued showers and
thunderstorms N of the Leeward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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