[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 40.9N 48.6W at 08/2100 UTC,
or about 400 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving north at 20
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 41N-42N between 47W-49W. See the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 10N14W
to 10N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from
10N27W to 07N40W to the coast of South America near 03N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 20W-32W, and
from 04N-06N between 45W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 31N85W to Brownsville Texas near 26N97W. No significant
convection is noted along the front. A surface trough is over the
Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to 18N91W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the trough. Weak surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin with fair weather. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the area south of
the front while northerly winds prevail north of the front.
Expect for the front in 24 hours to extend from N Florida to the
NW Gulf to the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from Haiti near 19N72W to the coast of N
Colombia near 12.5N74.5W to 07N73W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 240 nm E of the trough axis. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are over E Cuba and Jamaica. Further S, the eastern
extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over the SW Caribbean
along 09N between Costa Rica and N Colombia. Isolated moderate
convection is over Costa Rica and Panama. 10-15 kt tradewinds are
over the remainder of the Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper
level low is over E Cuba near 20N77W. Upper level diffluence E of
the low is enhancing the convection over the central Caribbean.
Upper level diffluence E of the low is also producing scattered
showers over the NE Caribbean to include Hispaniola, Puerto Rico,
and the Virgin Islands. Expect in 24 hours for a low to form off
the coast of N Colombia near 14N77W with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends S from Haiti. In addition upper level
diffluence is over the island. Scattered moderate convection is
over all of S Hispaniola, and scattered showers are elsewhere.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to persist over the island for
the next 48 hours with the potential of localized flooding and
life-threatening mud slides.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for more information on
Tropical Storm Rina. In the W Atlantic, a surface trough extends
from 28N76W to 21N75W. Isolated showers are noted over the central
and southern Bahamas. A 1018 mb high is over the W Atlantic near
30N63W. Another surface trough is over the tropical Atlantic from
26N48W to 19N52W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough. Of note in the upper levels, the upper level low centered
over E Cuba is producing diffluent flow as far E as 60W.
Isolated moderate convection is N of the Leeward Islands from
19N-23N between 60W-70W. Another upper level low is centered over
the E Atlantic near 21N47W enhancing scattered showers. Expect the
cold front presently over the Gulf of Mexico to reach the W
Atlantic on Thu. Also expect the E Cuba upper level low to drift
to the S Bahamas over the next 24 hours, with continued showers
and thunderstorms N of the Leeward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

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