[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 39.4N 48.7W at 08/1500 UTC,
or about 478 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving north at 18
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is present north of 38N between 43W-52W. See
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea on the coast of W Africa
near 09N13W to 09N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
continues from 09N27W to 05N40W to 06N42W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring within 50 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is entering the northwest Gulf, extending from 29N92W
to 26N97W. No significant convection is related to this boundary
at this time. Weak surface ridging prevails across the remainder
of the basin with fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts gentle
to moderate easterly winds across the area south of the front
while northerly winds prevail north of the front. Expect for the
front to stall over the northwest Gulf. A secondary push will make
it drift south through the week while dissipating.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the central Caribbean with
scattered moderate convection between 68W-77W, affecting
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and surrounded waters. This trough is
supported by an upper-level low centered over east Cuba. Moderate
to fresh southeast winds are depicted in scatterometer data to
the east of the trough, while gentle to moderate northeasterly
winds prevail west of the trough. To the south, the EPAC's monsoon
trough extends along 10N between 76W-83W enhancing scattered
showers in this area. Fair weather prevails elsewhere. A similar
weather pattern is expected through the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends across the island enhancing scattered
moderate convection. This trough is supported by an upper-level
low centered over east Cuba. Expect for this activity to continue
during the next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for more information on
Tropical Storm Rina. In the W Atlantic, a surface trough extends
from 28N77W to 23N76W. Isolated showers are noted along the
trough. To the east, another surface trough extends across
southern Bahamas enhancing convection south of 24N between 64W-
72W. A 1018 mb surface high is centered near 30N66W. Surface
ridging prevails elsewhere, anchored by a 1040 mb high centered
near 45N25W. Expect for a cold front currently over eastern USA
to reach the west Atlantic by late Thursday enhancing convection.
Also, expect the eastern Cuba upper-level low to slowly lift
northeast over the southern Bahamas during the next 24 hours,
supporting showers and thunderstorms north of the Leeward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net