[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
603 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 37.1N 48.4W at 08/0900 UTC,
or about 615 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving N at 17 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 39N to 42N between 44W and 51W. See the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea on the coast of W Africa
near 11N15W to 06N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
continues from 06N19W to 05N30W to 05N46W to the coast of S
America near 04N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 04N to 12N between 16W and 30W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is found from 03N to 07N between
10W and 18W and from 03N to 07N between 33W and 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered S of Louisiana near 28N90W. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds generally prevail over the Gulf
accompanied by fair weather. The only exception is along the lower
Texas coast where moderate SSE return flow is observed just to the
S of the cold front nearing the Texas Coastal Bend. An upper
level ridge extending over the Gulf of Mexico from near Tampico
Mexico to near Tampa Florida is maintaining strong subsidence over
the Gulf of Mexico S of 28N. Expect the cold front to emerge off
the Texas and Louisiana coasts this morning, but shower coverage
will be limited. Fresh to strong NNE winds will be generated west
of the front as it continues to move ESE across the Gulf and to
the Florida Big Bend by Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends N from between Haiti and Jamaica near
17N75W to the eastern tip of Cuba. The upper-level trough that is
inducing this surface trough extends NE from Honduras to and
upper-level low centered over eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Divergent
upper-level winds are combining with the surface trough to trigger
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection S of Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico within 120 nm either side of a line from 17N66W
to 15N74W. Farther S, the E Pacific monsoon trough extends over
the SW Caribbean along 10N from Costa Rica through low pres
centered over NW Colombia near 10N74W to end near 10N72W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present within 60
nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. Moderate trade
winds prevail over the Caribbean courtesy of high pressure over
the western Atlc and low pres over northern S America. Expect more
showers to continue over the SW Caribbean, and the E Caribbean
over the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends N from between far SW Haiti and Jamaica
near 17N75W through the Turks and Caicos Islands to the northern
Bahamas. Upper-level divergence and low-level convergence are
maintaining scattered moderate convection over the island.
Isolated thunderstorms are also seen over the coastal waters.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue over the island
during the next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the special features section for more information on Tropical
Storm Rina. In the W Atlantic, a surface trough extends NNW from
the eastern tip of Cuba near 20.5N75W to just E of the northern
Bahamas near 28N77W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is observed from 20N to 23N between 66W and 72W. Of
note in the upper levels, the upper-level low that anchors the
trough over the Caribbean is centered over E Cuba near 21N76W. The
low is producing divergent flow as far E as 60W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring N of the Virgin Islands and well
N of the Leeward Islands from 20N to 22N between 60W and 66W. A
1018 mb high hovers over the W Atlantic near 31N65W. Another
surface trough supported by an upper-level low centered near
23N38W extends over the tropical Atlantic from 19N42W to 13N44W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 18N
to 20N between 38W and 41W. Expect the cold front currently
arriving on the Texas coast to reach the W Atlantic on Thu
evening. Also expect the E Cuba upper-level low to slowly lift NE
over the S Bahamas during the next 24 hours, with continued
showers and thunderstorms N of the Leeward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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