[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 35.4N 48.5W at 08/0300 UTC,
or about 710 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving N at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 36N to 39N between 44W and 50W. See the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 12N16W to 09N20W.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 09N20W to
07N32W to 05N42W to Guyana on the coast of S America near 07N58W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 12N
between 16W and 30W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is found within 60 nm either side of a line from 05N30W
to 04N36W to 06N40W to 06N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered just SE of the Mouth of the
Mississippi near 28.5N88.5W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds
generally prevail over the Gulf accompanied by fair weather. The
only exception is along the lower Texas coast where moderate SSE
return flow is observed in the latest satellite-derived wind data.
An upper level ridge extending over the Gulf of Mexico from near
Tampico Mexico to near Tampa Florida is maintaining strong
subsidence over the Gulf of Mexico S of 27N. Expect a cold front
to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts later this morning,
but shower coverage will be limited. Fresh to strong NNE winds
will be generated west of the front as it continues to move ESE
across the Gulf and to the Florida Big Bend by Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends N from western Haiti through the
Windward Passage. The upper-level trough that is inducing this
surface trough extends NE from the Gulf of Honduras to eastern
Cuba. Divergent upper-level winds are combining with the surface
trough to trigger scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection S of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico within 90 nm either
side of a line from 15N66W to 18N70W. Farther S, the E Pacific
monsoon trough extends over the SW Caribbean along 09N from Costa
Rica to Panama to NW Colombia near 09N75W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present within 60 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 72W and 77W. Moderate trade winds prevail over
the Caribbean due to high pressure over the western Atlc and low
pres over northern S America. Expect more showers to continue over
the SW Caribbean, and the E Caribbean over the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends N from W Haiti through the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Upper level divergence remains in place over the
island. Scattered moderate convection is over Haiti. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over the island and
are most concentrated over the Dominican Republic. Expect showers
and thunderstorms to continue over the island during the next 48
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the special features section for more information on Tropical
Storm Rina. In the W Atlantic, a surface trough extends NNW from
SW Haiti near 18N74W to just E of the northern Bahamas near
27N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
observed from 20N to 23N between 69W to 75W. A 1018 mb high hovers
over the W Atlantic near 31N67W. Another surface trough supported
by and upper-level low near 22N39W extends over the tropical
Atlantic from 20N39W to 15N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is seen from 17N to 19N between 37W and 40W. Of
note in the upper levels, the upper-level low that anchors the
trough over the caribbean is centered over E Cuba near 21N76W. The
low is producing divergent flow as far E as 60W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring over the Virgin islands and N of
the Leeward Islands from 18N to 23N between 59W and 64W. Another
upper-level low centered over the Canary Islands near 31N16W
producing scattered showers from 28N to 32N between 10W and 15W.
Expect the cold front currently approaching the Texas coast to
reach the W Atlantic on Thu evening. Also expect the E Cuba upper
level low to drift to the S Bahamas during the next 24 hours, with
continued showers and thunderstorms N of the Leeward Islands.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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