[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 33.8N 48.9W at 07/2100 UTC,
or about 803 nm E of Bermuda, or about 1140 nm SSE of Cape Race
Newfoundland, moving N at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 34N-37N
between 46W-50W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 12N16W to 09N25W.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 09N25W to
09N32W to 06N42W to S America near 07N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-11N between 20W-25W, and from 04N-07N
between 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico
near 28N90W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are going around the high
with fair weather. Scattered showers are, however, over S Florida
and the Straits of Florida. In the upper levels, a large upper
level high is centered over the Mexico near 21N105W. Strong
subsidence is over the Gulf of Mexico S of 27N. Expect a cold
front to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Wed morning
with showers. Fresh to strong NNE winds will lie west of the
front as it continues to move ESE across the Gulf and the central
Florida Peninsula through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 21N86W to the Gulf
of Honduras near 16N88W. Scattered showers are over the Gulf of
Honduras, Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. Further S, the eastern
extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over the SW Caribbean
along 09N between Costa Rica and N Colombia. Scattered showers are
over Costa Rica and Panama. 10-15 kt tradewinds are over the
remainder of the Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level
low is over E Cuba near 20N76W. Upper level diffluence E of the
low is producing scattered showers over the E Caribbean E of 74W
to include Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.
Expect more showers over the SW Caribbean, and the E Caribbean
over the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends from the N Bahamas to SW Haiti. In
addition upper level diffluence is over the island. Scattered
moderate convection is over Haiti. Scattered showers are over the
Dominican Republic. Expect showers and thunderstorms over the
island for the next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the special features section for more information on Tropical
Storm Rina. In the W Atlantic, a surface trough extends from
27N74W to SW Haiti near 18N74W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 20N-24N between 68W-75W. A 1018 mb high is over the W
Atlantic near 31N67W. Another surface trough is over the tropical
Atlantic from 20N39W to 15N42W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 17N-20N between 37W-40W. Of note in the upper levels, the
upper level low centered over E Cuba is producing diffluent flow
as far E as 60W. Scattered moderate convection is N of the Leeward
Islands from 19N-24N between 60W-64W. Another upper level low is
centered over the E Atlantic near 22N41W enhancing convection. A
third upper level low is centered over the Canary Islands near
30N16W producing scattered showers from 28N-32N between 10W-18W.
Expect the cold front presently over central Texas to reach the W
Atlantic on Thu evening. Also expect the E Cuba upper level low to
drift to the S Bahamas over the next 24 hours, with continued
showers and thunderstorms N of the Leeward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

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