[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 32.4N 49.3W at 07/1500 UTC
or about 785 nm E of Bermuda and about 1140 nm W of the Azores
moving N at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of the storm center from
33N to 38N between 43W and 51W. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal, Africa near 12N16W to
08N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from
08N25W to 06N40W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N to 10N E of 32W and from 03N to 09N W of 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico just S of
Alabama and Mississippi near 28N88W, which continues to provide light
to gentle NE to E flow E of 90W and light to moderate SSE winds W
of 90W. Middle to upper level ridging is over the basin along with
very dry air, which support clear skies. The center of high
pressure will move to the NW Gulf waters through Wednesday morning
where it will dissipate ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge
off the Texas and Louisiana coast. Fresh to strong NNE winds will
lie west of the front as it continues to move ESE across the Gulf
and the central Florida Peninsula through Thu night. Scattered to
isolated showers will accompany the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low centered over E Cuba extends S to a base over the
SW Caribbean while middle to upper level ridging covers the
remainder basin. Between these two features, diffluent flow along
with shallow moisture support scattered showers and tstms between
63W and 75W, including Puerto Rico, the Mona Passage and
Hispaniola. Isolated showers are across E Cuba being supported by
a surface trough extending S from the SW N Atlc. This shower
activity will continue in the central and north-central region of
the basin through early in the weekend as the upper low deepens to
the middle levels and then drifts to the SW Caribbean. The EPAC
monsoon trough extends across Panama and Costa Rica to NW Colombia
and support scattered showers S of 11N. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate trades are expected to persist through early Wed morning
when a low develops over the central basin tightening slightly the
pressure gradient.

...HISPANIOLA...

Diffluent flow between a middle level low centered over E Cuba and
ridging to the E supports scattered showers and tstms between 63W
and 75W, including the Mona Passage and Hispaniola. This shower
activity will continue across the Island and adjacent waters
through early in the weekend as the upper low deepens to the
middle levels and then drifts to the SW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the special features section for more information on Tropical
Storm Rina. A pair of surface troughs are in the SW N Atlc, one
off the Florida coast that lacks convection and another across the
Bahamas to E Cuba along 74W. The easternmost trough support
isolated showers in the southern Bahamas and adjacent waters. E of
the trough, the diffluent flow in the Caribbean extends N
supporting scattered showers and tstms S of 25N between 60W and
70W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of
a surface ridge anchored by a 1038 mb high centered N of the
Azores Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net