[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
06N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N22W to
05N51W. A surface trough is analyzed north of the ITCZ from
15N46W to 07N46W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ
between 20W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 29N88W
prevails across the entire basin providing gentle to moderate
anticyclonic across the area. The center of high pressure is
forecast to stall through Tuesday night then it will dissipate
ahead of the next cold front to come off the coast of Texas by
early Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin is a surface trough west of Jamaica
and extending to southern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the trough and between 78W-85W.
Dry/stable air prevails elsewhere, thus supporting fair weather.
Isolated passing showers are possible in Puerto Rico and the
Windward Islands. Gentle to moderate trades are prevailing and expected
to persist through early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Dry air subsidence will hinder the development of convection
through Monday night when a middle to upper-level trough will
move over the island from the west, thus supporting lifting of
warm moist air and the development of showers and tstms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1013 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic east of
the Bahamas near 26N75W. A surface trough extends from the low to
31N77W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough/low. To the
east, another 1013 mb surface low is located near 27N52W. A
surface trough extends from 30N51W to the low to 23N53W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed between 46W-54W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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