[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050444
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 AM EDT Sun Nov 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
05N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N25W to 06N38W to 07N49W. A surface trough is analyzed at the
western extent of the ITCZ axis from 08N46W to 17N46W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 09W-15W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 01N-08N between 20W-
43W...and from 10N-17N between 43W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 30N87W
continues to prevail across the entire basin this evening. Latest
scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
throughout. The ridge is expected to move little and remain nearly
stationary across the NE Gulf waters through Wednesday. Moderate
to occasional fresh southerly return flow is forecast across
western portions through Wednesday when the next front is expected
to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast Wednesday late
afternoon into the early evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough extends from northern Nicaragua into a 1010 mb
low near 18N84W to 21N82W and continues to provide focus for
widely scattered showers and tstms occurring from 12N-21N between
77W-86W. The monsoon trough axis also extends from northern
Colombia along 11N/12N to southern Nicaragua with scattered
showers and isolated tstms occurring S of 12N between 76W-86W.
Farther east...shallow isolated showers are occurring primarily E
of 70W...including the Mona Passage...Puerto Rico...and across
many of the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise...gentle to moderate
trades are expected to persist through Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers linger across the island this evening...however
overall the pattern is expected to remain fairly tranquil the
next few days with west-southwesterly flow aloft and gentle to
moderate trades at the surface.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level shortwave
trough with axis extending from 32N75W to 23N81W to a base over
Guatemala near 15N90W. This troughing supports a 1012 mb low
centered E of the Bahamas near 26N75W and a surface trough
extending N-NW to 31N78W and S-SE to 23N74W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring mostly E of the trough axis from
22N-30N between 70W-78W. Across the central Atlc...a middle to
upper level trough extends from 28N54W to 21N46W. This troughing
continues to support a 1012 mb low centered near 28N51W with
scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring from 25N-33N
between 46W-53W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered
N-NE of the Azores near 44N23W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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