[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to
06N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N21W to 05N40W to 07N52W. A surface trough is analyzed N of the
ITCZ axis from 15N44W to 06N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N-09N between 02W-24W, from 01N-10N between 30W-41W and
from 12N-16N between 46W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 30N88W
prevails across the entire basin providing gentle to moderate NE
flow E of 90W and SSE flow elsewhere. The center of high pressure
is forecast to stall through Tuesday night then it will dissipate
ahead of the next cold front to come off the coast of Texas
Wednesday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin is a surface trough W of Jamaica
continuing to Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama adjacent waters.
The trough lies underneath of a diffluent zone between the base of
an upper trough over Honduras and SW to W upper flow covering the
central and eastern Caribbean. This environment aloft along with
shallow moisture, as seen in CIRA LPW imagery, support scattered
heavy showers and tstms S of 20N between 78W-83W. Very dry air is
subsiding elsewhere, thus supporting mainly fair weather. Isolated
passing showers are possible in Puerto Rico and the Windward
Islands. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades are expected to
persist through the weekend into early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are possible this afternoon due to patches of
shallow moisture moving across the northern Caribbean waters.
However, dry air subsidence and strong shear will hinder the
development of convection through Monday night when a middle to
upper level trough will move over the Island from the W, thus
supporting lifting of warm moist air and the development of
showers and tstms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level shortwave
trough supporting a 1014 mb low centered E of the Bahamas near
25N74W with associated trough extending from 32N76W to the low to
23N75W. Across the central Atlc, a middle to upper level trough
between 50W and 60W supports a pair of 1014 mb lows; one near
25N58W and the second near 25N52W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring primarily E of the lows from 21N-31N between
44W-54W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered N of the
Azores.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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