[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
656 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N17W to
07N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N22W to 04N30W to 06N43W. A surface trough is analyzed at the
western extent of the ITCZ axis from 04N44W to 12N42W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-09N between 02W-22W...and from
05N-09N between 30W-38W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere
from 02N-12N between 35W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 29N87W
continues to prevail across the entire basin this morning. Latest
scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
throughout. The ridge is expected to move little through Sunday
morning and then shift gradually northeastward as moderate to
occasional fresh southerly return flow is forecast across western
portions early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage near 19N75W to
13N81W and continues to provide focus for widely scattered
showers and tstms occurring from 11N-20N between 75W-84W. Farther
east...another surface trough extends from the central Atlc to
east of the Lesser Antilles near 15N59W. Shallow isolated showers
are occurring primarily SE of a line from 17N62W to 11N66W.
Otherwise...gentle to moderate trades are expected to persist
through the weekend into early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers linger across the island this morning...however
overall the pattern is expected to remain fairly tranquil the next
few days with westerly flow aloft and gentle to moderate trades at
the surface.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level shortwave
trough with axis extending from 36N66W to a broad base near
29N79W. This troughing supports a 1013 mb low centered E of the
Bahamas near 26N75W and a surface trough that cuts along 75W from
the low to 31N. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring well E of the low center from 24N-31N between 66W-72W.
Otherwise the remainder of the SW North Atlc is experiencing
rather tranquil conditions as dry zonal flow aloft prevails W of
65W. Across the central Atlc...a middle to upper level trough
extends along 53W from a base near 20N northward to 32N. This
troughing has induced an area of lower pressure between 50W-62W
featuring a 1013 mb low centered near 25N53W with a surface trough
extending S-SW to east of the Lesser Antilles near 15N59W. Another
surface trough lies to the NW of the low from 24N62W to 32N54W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring primarily E of
the upper level trough axis in an area of maximum middle to upper
level divergence from 19N-37N between 44W-54W. The remainder of
the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 45N30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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