[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040441
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1241 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
10N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
10N23W to 05N30W to 06N41W. A surface trough is analyzed at the
western extent of the ITCZ axis from 05N43W to 14N39W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 01N-10N between 03W- 23W...
and from 02N-07N between 36W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 30N86W
continues to prevail across the entire basin this evening. Latest
scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
throughout. The ridge is expected to move little through Sunday
morning and then shift gradually northeastward as moderate to
occasional fresh southerly return flow is forecast across western
portions early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage near 29N75W to
13N77W and continues to provide focus for widely scattered showers
and tstms occurring from 11N-20N between 75W-85W...including
interior portions of Central America. Farther east...another
surface trough extends from the central Atlc to east of the
Windward Islands near 12N61W. Shallow isolated showers are
occurring primarily E of 61W...and S of 11N. Otherwise...gentle to
moderate trades are expected to persist through the weekend into
early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers linger across the island this evening...however
overall the pattern is expected to remain fairly tranquil the next
few days with westerly flow aloft and gentle to moderate trades.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level shortwave
trough with axis extending from 26N70W to a broad base near
29N77W. This troughing supports a 1012 mb low centered E of the
Bahamas near 26N75W and a surface trough that cuts along 75W from
24N to 30N. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring
well E of the low center from 26N-32N between 67W-72W. Otherwise
the remainder of the SW North Atlc is experiencing rather tranquil
conditions as dry zonal flow aloft prevails W of 65W. Across the
central Atlc...a middle to upper level trough extends along 54W
from a base near 21N northward to 34N. This troughing has induced
an area of lower pressure between 50W-62W featuring a 1010 mb low
centered near 23N53W and another weakening 1012 mb low centered
near 33N57W. A surface trough extends from the 1010 mb low SW to
E of the Windward Islands near 12N61W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring primarily E of the upper level
trough axis in an area of maximum middle to upper level divergence
from 19N-36N between 45W-54W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high
centered near 47N34W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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