[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N14W to
09N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 09N17W to
06N30W to 07N54W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
coast of W Africa from 08N-12N between 14W-18W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 02N-08N between 18W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high is centered off the coast of New Jersey near
40N74W. Surface ridging extends SW to the NE Gulf of Mexico. The
W Gulf has 15-20 kt SE surface flow. A quasi-stationary front is
just inland of the Texas coast. Scattered showers are noted on
radar over the W Gulf N of 25N and W of 93W. Mostly fair weather
is over the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels, zonal flow
prevails with strong subsidence. Expect showers to persist over
the NW Gulf for the next 24 hours. Also expect the Texas front to
lift N and dissipate over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from N Hispaniola at 20N70W to Jamaica
at 18N77W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.
Elsewhere, a trough is over the W Caribbean from 17N80W to
10N83W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is NW of
the trough from 15N-18N between 82W-85W. In the upper levels, a
large upper level high is centered just N of Hispaniola near
21N73W. Strong subsidence is over the E Caribbean and the S
Caribbean. Expect the front to dissipate to a shear line over the
next 24 hours. Also expect more showers over the W Caribbean and
Central America over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over the island due to the stationary front.
Expect showers for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to N
Hispaniola at 20N70W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. A 1012 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near
29N50W. A surface trough extends S form the low to 26N50W to
21N57W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered over the central Atlantic near 27N48W. Upper level
diffluence is SE of this low. Expect the front to drift W over the
next 24 hours with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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