[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N14W to
08N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N19W to
07N40W to 08N50W. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast
of W Africa from 04N-11N between 10W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high is centered off the coast of Virginia near 37N71W.
Surface ridging extends SW to the NE Gulf of Mexico. The W Gulf
has 15-20 kt SE surface flow. A quasi-stationary front is just
inland of the Texas coast. Scattered showers are noted on radar
over the W Gulf N of 25N and W of 93W. Mostly fair weather is over
the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels, zonal flow
prevails with strong subsidence. Expect showers to persist over
the NW Gulf for the next 24 hours. Also expect the Texas front to
lift N and dissipate over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from N Hispaniola at 20N70W to Jamaica
at 18N77W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.
Elsewhere, a trough is over the W Caribbean from 17N80W to
10N83W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm W of the trough. In the
upper levels, a large upper level high is centered just N of
Hispaniola near 21N73W. Strong subsidence is over the E Caribbean
and the S Caribbean. Expect the front to dissipate to a shear
line over the next 24 hours. Also expect more showers over the W
Caribbean and Central America over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over the island due to the stationary front.
Expect showers for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to N
Hispaniola at 20N70W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. A 1012 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near
30N48W. A surface trough extends S form the low to 21N58W.
Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over
the central Atlantic near 27N48W. Upper level diffluence is SE of
this low. Expect the front to drift W over the next 24 hours with
showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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