[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
133 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 08N32W to 03S33W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Mid-level cyclonic curvature is noted in infrared satellite
imagery and model fields between 30W and 35W. Scattered moderate
convection is along and near the wave axis between 28W-37W.

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 09N49W to 02S49W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
This wave has become less well defined over the past 24 hours.
However, some signature remains in infrared satellite imagery and
in model fields. No significant convection is related to this wave
at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough crosses the western African coast near 09N13W
and extends to 06N17W, where the ITCZ begins and extends to
05N30W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 02N36W and then
extends to 02N45W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate to strong convection prevails
east of 17W. Isolated showers are observed along the boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb surface high remains centered over the northeast Gulf
near 28N88W, supporting mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow over the basin. Fair weather also dominates the Gulf under
this area of high pressure. Over the next 24 hours, the high will
drift toward the northeast. Winds will increase to fresh to
strong over the southwestern Gulf tonight as a thermal trough
moves westward off the Yucatan peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near
21N77W to 17N83W. Scattered showers are observed along and withing
200 nm east of the front affecting the northern Caribbean north of
15N between 73W-77W. To the south, a surface trough extends from
16N79W to 10N78W. This trough, combined with the proximity of the
Monsoon Trough that extends across Costa Rica and Panama, supports
scattered moderate convection south of 12N between 77W-84W. The
eastern Caribbean is void of deep convection due in part to
subsidence from a mid to upper-level ridge. Mainly moderate east
to northeast winds cover the basin at this time, with the
exception of the southwest Caribbean where light winds prevail
south of 10N. During the next 24 hours, the stationary front will
dissipate. Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the
southwestern Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to numerous showers are affecting the island today as
the stationary front remains to the west of the area. This
enhanced coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue
through Monday morning, becoming lesser in coverage by late
afternoon as the front weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is entering the area of discussion just offshore of
north Florida and currently extends along 31N between 75W-81W.
This front is dry with no significant shower activity. A
stationary front enters the area of discussion near 31N66W and
extends to 21N76W. Numerous showers are within 150 nm on either
side of the front. Farther east, a cold front enters the area of
discussion near 31N20W and extends to 24N31W to 23N47W. No
convection is noted with this front. Fresh northerly winds prevail
north of the front with seas increasing to 8 to 12 ft. Two
tropical waves were analyzed across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. High pressure centered over the
north central Atlantic dominates the remainder of the central and
eastern Atlantic. During the next 24 hours, all the fronts will
begin to dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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