[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072305
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with an
axis extending from 07N29W to 04S30W, moving westward at 15 to 20
kt. Mid level cyclonic curvature is noted in infrared satellite
imagery and model fields between 28W and 31W. Numerous moderate
convection is from the equator to 06N between 26W and 31W.

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with an
axis extending from 05N42W to 03S43W, moving westward at 15 to 20
kt. This wave has become less well defined over the past 24 hours.
However, the wave signature remains somewhat evident in infrared
satellite imagery and in model fields. Isolated moderate
convection is within 120 nm of either side of the wave axis N of
03N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough crosses the western African coast near 09N13W
and extends to 06N16W, where the ITCZ begins and extends to
03N28W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 02N31W and then
extends to 00N41W, then resumes again west of another tropical
wave near 00N44W and then extends to 02S48W. Aside from convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is from 02N to 08N between 17W and 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb area of high pressure remains centered over the central
Gulf near 28N89W, supporting mainly gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow over the basin. Fair weather also dominates the
Gulf today under this area of high pressure. Over the next 24
hours, the high will drift toward the northeastern Gulf. Winds
will increase to fresh to strong over the southwestern Gulf
tonight as a thermal trough moves westward off the Yucatan
peninsula.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to
17N84W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are mainly confined
along and south of the frontal boundary, including across Jamaica
and the Windward Passage. Dry air is noted north of the front. A
surface trough extends over the southwestern Caribbean from 16N77W
to 10N77W. The combination of this trough and southwesterly flow
aloft to the south of an upper trough that is currently over the
northwestern Caribbean supports scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection south of 16N between 71W and 78W. The eastern
Caribbean is void of deep convection due in part to subsidence
from a mid to upper level ridge. Mainly moderate east to northeast
winds cover the Caribbean this evening, except light winds over
the far southwestern Caribbean south of 10N. Over the next 24
hours the stationary front will dissipate. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue over the southwestern Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms
continue over the area today to the east of a stationary front.
This enhanced coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue
through Monday morning, becoming lesser in coverage by late Monday
afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is entering the area of discussion just offshore of
north Florida and currently extends along 31N between 78W and 81W.
This front is dry with no notable shower activity. A surface
trough extends from 30N75W to 26N77W. No convection is noted with
this trough. Another cold front enters the area of discussion
near 31N67W and extends to 24N71W, where it transitions to a
stationary front that extends to eastern Cuba near 21N77W.
Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm
northwest, and 210 nm southeast of the frontal boundary. Farther
east, a third cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N22W
and extends to 25N33W to 25N48W. No convection is noted with this
front. However, winds become fresh and northerly north of the
front with seas increasing to 8 to 12 ft. High pressure centered
over the north central Atlantic dominates the remainder of the
central and eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours both cold
fronts over the western Atlantic will begin to dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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