[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the tropical Atlantic with an axis
extending from 07N27W to 03S27W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
700 mb cyclonic curvature is noted along 30W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is E of the wave axis from 04S-07N
between 21W-27W.

A tropical wave is over the tropical Atlantic with an axis
extending from 06N40W to 03S41W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
This wave has recently produced less convection. Isolated
moderate convection is within 120 nm of either side of the wave
axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough crosses the western African coast near 08N12W
and extends to 05N13W, where the ITCZ begins and extends to
01S27W to 00N40W to the South American coast near 00N50W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 00W-15W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06S-05N between 18W-
32W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 07/1500 UTC, a 1019 mb high is centered over the north central
Gulf of Mexico near 27N89W. Fair weather dominates the area. Radar
imagery shows the entire basin is void of precipitation. 10-15 kt
anticyclonic winds are going around the high with strongest winds
along the S Texas coast. In the upper levels, an upper level
trough is over the Gulf with axis along 80W. Very strong
subsidence is over the Gulf. Expect the surface high to
dissipate over the next 24 hours.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 07/1500 UTC, the tail end of a quasi-stationary front is
over the NW Caribbean extending from E Cuba near 21N76W to 17N83W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Elsewhere, a
surface trough is over the SW Caribbean with axis from 15N77W to
09N77W moving W with the tradewind flow. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the trough axis.
Scattered moderate convection is also over Lake Maracaibo
Venezuela, and along the coast if Nicaragua from 10N-13N between
81W-84W. Scattered showers are over Jamaica, and Hispaniola. In
the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Caribbean,
while an upper level trough is over the E Caribbean. Expect the
surface trough to be along 80W in 24 hours with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are presently over the island due mostly to
prefrontal activity. Enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity
will persist for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic extending from 31N67W to
25N71W. A quasi-stationary front continues to E Cuba near 21N76W.
Scattered moderate convection is N of 23N between 64W-70W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of the front.
A cold front is over the E Atlantic extending from 31N24W to
27N30W to 24N40W to 25N48W. scattered showers are within 90 nm of
the front. Expect both fronts to move E over the next 24 hours
with significant convection associated with the W Atlantic front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

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