[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT Mon May 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 09N33W to 04S34W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Mid-level cyclonic curvature is noted in infrared satellite
imagery and model fields between 30W and 36W. Scattered moderate
convection is along and near the wave axis between 32W-36W.

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 10N51W to 00N51W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
This wave has become less well defined over the past 24 hours.
However, some signature remains in infrared satellite imagery and
in model fields. No significant convection is related to this wave
at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 14N17W
and extends to 12N19W. The ITCZ begins near 05N21W and continues
to 02N32W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 00N36W and
extends to 00N48W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate to strong convection prevails
east of 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb surface high remains centered over the northeast Gulf
near 27N87W, supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
over the basin. Fair weather also dominates the Gulf under this
area of high pressure. A thermal trough extends over the Bay of
Campeche from 22N92W to 19N93W. Fresh winds are depicted in
scatterometer data near this trough. Over the next 24 hours, the
high will drift toward the northeast. Winds will increase to fresh
over the southwestern Gulf again tonight as the thermal trough
moves westward off the Yucatan peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near
21N77W to 17N83W. Scattered showers are observed along and within
200 nm east of the front affecting the northern Caribbean north of
17N between 70W-76W. To the south, a surface trough extends from
18N79W to 14N80W. This trough, combined with the proximity of the
Monsoon Trough that extends along 10N and between 76W-82W,
supports isolated moderate convection south of 14N. The eastern
Caribbean is void of deep convection due in part to subsidence
from a mid to upper-level ridge. Mainly moderate east to
northeast winds cover the basin at this time, with the exception
of the southwest Caribbean where light winds prevail south of 10N.
During the next 24 hours, the stationary front will dissipate.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the southwestern
Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are affecting the northwestern portion of the island
as the stationary front remains to the west of the area. This
enhanced coverage of showers will continue through this morning,
becoming lesser in coverage by late afternoon as the front
weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is entering the area of discussion from 31N73W to
29N81W. This front has no significant shower activity. A
stationary front enters the area of discussion near 31N66W and
extends to 21N75W. A surface trough developed overnight just
north of the Windward Passage extending from 23N70W to 20N73W.
Numerous showers are within 150 nm on either side of the front and
trough. Farther east, a stationary front enters the area of
discussion near 31N21W and extends to 25N30W to 23N47W. No
convection is noted with this front. Fresh northerly winds prevail
north of the front with seas increasing to 8 to 12 ft. Two
tropical waves were analyzed across the basin. Please refer to the
section above for details. High pressure centered over the north
central Atlantic dominates the remainder of the central and
eastern Atlantic. During the next 24 hours, all the fronts will
begin to dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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