[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with an axis
extending from 09N36W to 01N37W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Mid-level cyclonic turning has been evident in infrared satellite
patterns associated with this wave for the past several days as
it has tracked from the western Africa coast to its present
location. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of either
side of the wave axis S of 02N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough crosses the western African coast near 11N15W
and extends to 07N18W, where the ITCZ begins and extends to
02N32W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near 00N40W to the
South American coast near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ between
16W-32W. Isolated showers are within 100 nm north of the other
portion of the ITCZ between 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb surface is centered near 26N91W and extends across the
whole basin. With this, fair weather dominates the area.
Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
over most of the basin, with the strongest winds prevailing
across the northeast portion mainly north of 27N and east of 90W.
The high will drift east over the next 24 hours, diminishing
winds over the northeast Gulf and causing an increase in
southeasterly winds over the southwestern portion.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba where it transitions to a
stationary front, entering the northwest Caribbean near 21N77W to
19N82W then becoming weak from that point to 17N84W. Scattered
showers are observed along and east of these fronts. Some of this
activity is affecting the Windward Passage and the western half
of Hispaniola. To the south, a surface trough extends from 15N82W
to 10N83W with scattered showers. The proximity of the Monsoon
Trough that extends over southern Panama and Costa Rica, is
enhancing convection over the south central Caribbean mainly south
of 12N between 73W-84W. No significant convection is noted over
the remainder of the area. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across the whole basin. During the next 24 hours,
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean will
decrease as the frontal boundaries dissipate.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers cover the western half of the island as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. Enhanced shower and
thunderstorm activity will continue over the area through Sunday
with locally heavy rainfall possible.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N70W and
extends to 26N73W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 300 nm east of the front, with strongest
activity north of 26N. Strong west to northwest winds are north
of 27N and west of the front. To the east, a cold front enters
the central and east Atlantic waters from the north, extending
from 31N25W to 27N37W to 31N53W. Isolated showers are observed
along this front. Fresh northerly winds and large swell are north
of this front over our waters. A tropical wave was analyzed along
37W. Please refer to the section above for details. The remainder
of the basin is dominated by high pressure centered over the
north central Atlantic. During the next 24 hours, the cold front
over the western Atlantic will slow its eastward progression and
begin to weaken. Showers and thunderstorms will continue within a
few hundred nm east of this front. Th cold front over the central
and east Atlantic will continue moving south while weakening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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