[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with an axis
extending from 09N38W to 00N39W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Mid-level cyclonic turning has been evident in infrared satellite
imagery associated with this wave for the past several days as it
has tracked from the western Africa coast to its present location.
Isolated moderate convection is within 150 nm of either side of
the wave axis S of 02N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough remains over the African continent. The ITCZ
begins near 05N16W to 02N36W, then resumes west of the tropical
wave near 00N41W to the South American coast near 01S46W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed within 200 nm on either
side of the ITCZ between 16W-32W. Isolated showers are within 100
nm north of the other portion of the ITCZ between 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb surface is centered near 27N90W and extends across the
whole basin. With this, fair weather dominates the area.
Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
over most of the basin, with the strongest winds prevailing across
the northeast portion mainly north of 28N and east of 90W. The
high will drift east over the next 24 hours, diminishing winds
over the northeast Gulf and causing an increase in southeasterly
winds over the southwestern portion.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across eastern Cuba where it transitions to
a stationary front, entering the northwest Caribbean near 21N77W
to 19N82W then becoming weak from that point to 17N84W. Scattered
showers are observed along and east of these fronts. Some of this
activity is affecting the Windward Passage and the western half of
Hispaniola. To the south, a surface trough extends from 19N77W to
16N82W with scattered showers. The proximity of the Monsoon
Trough that extends near southern Panama and Costa Rica, is
enhancing convection over the south-central Caribbean mainly
south of 14N between 75W-83W. No significant convection is noted
over the remainder of the area. Scatterometer data depicts gentle
to moderate trades across the whole basin. During the next 24
hours, showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean
will decrease as the frontal boundaries dissipate.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers cover the western half of the island as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. Enhanced shower and
thunderstorm activity will continue over the area through the next
24 hours with locally heavy rainfall possible.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N68W and
extends to 26N71W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 300 nm east of the front, with strongest
activity north of 24N. Strong west to northwest winds are north
of 26N and west of the front. To the east, a cold front enters
the central and east Atlantic waters from the north, extending
from 31N24W to 26N38W to 28N51W, then becomes weak from that point
to 31N54W. Isolated showers are observed along this front. Fresh
northerly winds and large swell are north of this front over our
waters. A tropical wave was analyzed along 39W. Please refer to
the section above for details. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by high pressure centered over the north central
Atlantic. During the next 24 hours, the cold front over the
western Atlantic will slow its eastward progression and begin to
weaken. Showers and thunderstorms will continue within a few
hundred nm east of this front. The cold front over the central
and east Atlantic will continue moving south while weakening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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