[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with an axis
extending from 10N35W to 01N35W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Mid level cyclonic turning has been evident in infrared satellite
patterns associated with this wave for the past several days as
it has tracked from the western Africa coast to its present
location. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of either
side of the wave axis S of 05N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough crosses the western African coast near 10N14W
and extends to 06N17W, where the ITCZ begins and extends to
02N33W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 01S36W to the
South American coast near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is
south of 07N between 16W and 30W, and within 240 nm of either side
of the ITCZ axis west of 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1018 mb is centered over the west central Gulf
near 27N93W, supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western
Gulf, and moderate winds over the eastern Gulf, except fresh over
the northeastern Gulf. Fair weather dominates the basin this
evening. The high will drift east over the next 24 hours,
diminishing winds over the northeast Gulf and causing an increase
in southeasterly winds over the southwestern Gulf.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to 19N82W,
where it transitions to a weakening stationary front to 16N87W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm of
either side of the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds are north of the front. Gentle to moderate winds cover the
remainder of the western Caribbean. A surface trough extends just
east of the coast of Nicaragua, from 16N82W to 11N83W, supporting
showers and isolated thunderstorms. The eastern Pacific monsoon
trough extends from Costa Rica to 09N80W to 10N75W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection are within 120 nm of
either side of the monsoon trough axis. The remainder of the
central Caribbean and the eastern Caribbean are free of any
significant convection with mainly moderate trade winds
prevailing. Over the next 24 hours showers and thunderstorms over
the northwestern Caribbean will decrease as the frontal boundary
dissipates.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms cover most of the island,
except the SE portion, as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity will continue
over the area through Sunday with locally heavy rainfall possible.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N72W and extends
to 25N75W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered moderate
convection and thunderstorms are within 300 nm east of the front,
north of 24N. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorm are
within 300 nm east of the front south of 24N. Strong west to
northwest winds are north of 27N, west of the front. A cold front
enters the eastern Atlantic discussion waters near 31N27W and
extends to 28N40W to 31N52W. No significant convection is noted.
Fresh northerly winds and large swell are north of the front over
our waters. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is
dominated by high pressure centered over the north central
Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours the cold front over the western
Atlantic will slow its eastward progression and begin to weaken.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue within a few hundred nm
east of this front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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