[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
157 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front passes through 32N74W, to the Bahamas near 25N76W,
across Cuba near 22N78W, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea
near 19N83W. The front becomes stationary fromt 19N83W into the
Gulf of Honduras. A surface trough is along 20N78W to the coast of
Nicaragua near 13N84W. The current wind and seas forecast consists
of: to the north of 27N...W to NW winds 20 to 25 knots...except
25 knots to 30 knots to the north of 29N with frequent gusts to 35
knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet to the
north of 29N. The frequent gusts are forecast to diminish during
the afternoon hours of today. Please read the latest National
Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 01N30W
and 01N46W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong from 06N southward between
19W and 32W, from 01N to 03N between 39W and 43W, and from 05N to
10N between 47W and 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD, ACROSS FLORIDA, AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA,
AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A vigorous upper level trough is passing through the NE U.S.A.,
reaching SE Georgia and Florida, and the Yucatan Peninsula.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery to the NW and N of the line that passes through 32N72W,
to 24N77W 20N89W and 19N96W, covering parts of the Atlantic Ocean,
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and the entire Gulf of Mexico.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 29N to 31N between 69W and 71W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere within 120 nm to 240 nm on either side of the
line that passes through 32N69W 26N71W 20N78W 13N89W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1017 mb
high pressure center is near 27N95W in the NW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico. A 1018 mb high pressure center is in the coastal plains
of Mexico near 20N98W.

...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES
THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND
FROM 88W WESTWARD...

KVOA: 5 miles and haze; and KVKY: 3 miles and haze.

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: Bay City: 2 to 3 miles and haze.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, to the NW of the line that runs from SE Cuba to NE Honduras.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean
Sea, to the east of the SE Cuba-to-NE Honduras line. A ridge
extends from NE Colombia/NW Venezuela to Hispaniola.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 73W at the border of
Colombia with Venezuela beyond southern Costa Rica. Convective
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong in NW Venezuela along
the NW shores of Lake Maracaibo, and in the Colombia coastal
waters from 09.5N to 11.5N between 76W and 78W. isolated moderate
elsewhere from 12N southward from 74W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 06/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.76 in Montego
Bay in Jamaica, 0.23 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.10 in Nassau
in the Bahamas, and a TRACE in Guadeloupe and Trinidad.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.
The wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is from the south.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: light rain. few cumulonimbus
clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR.
Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 2500 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will
consist of anticyclonic wind flow, and that day two will consist
of SW wind flow, as a trough approaches from the NW. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will span Hispaniola
during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb
shows that S wind flow will move across the island at the start of
the 48-hour forecast period. An anticyclonic circulation center
will be off the SW corner of Puerto Rico at the start of the
48-hour forecast period. The anticyclonic circulation center is
forecast to move to Hispaniola, and spread broad anticyclonic wind
across the area during the next 48 hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N29W to 21N33W. A central
Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N28W, to 30N39W, and
to 32N50W. Another trough extends from a 22N46W cyclonic
circulation center to 20N55W and 10N56W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the north of the line
that passes through 32N23W 28N37W 29N45W beyond 32N53W, and from
19N to 23N between 52W and 59W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N13W to 26N21W 25N38W 28N52W,
beyond 32N56W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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