[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will be entering the NW Gulf of Mexico by
early morning Thursday. Gale-force winds are expected to develop
along the Tamaulipas coast north of Tampico in the morning, then
spread southward toward Veracruz during the afternoon hours. The
cold front will continue to move southeast Thursday through early
Saturday. High pressure building over eastern Mexico behind the
front will weaken thereafter allowing the gale winds to subside
by Thursday night. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough crosses the western African coast near 11N15W
and extends to 05N20W, where the ITCZ begins and extends to
04N35W to the South American coast near 00N50W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection from 04N-09N between 17W-24W.
Isolated moderate convection is N of the ITCZ from 03N-07N between
36W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across southern Louisiana to near
29N87W supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is N of 28N between 87W-93W. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico
has 10-20 kt southerly return flow. A weak surface trough is
inland over the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N89W to 18N91W lacking
convection. Winds become variable near this trough axis. A strong
cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf tonight with 25 kt N
winds N of the front. Gale force winds will later develop north
of the front over the western gulf. Please see the special
features section for more details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
presently over the SW Caribbean S of 12N to include Panama, Costa
Rica, and S Nicaragua. Scattered showers are over Honduras, S
Guatemala, E Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the
Leeward Islands. In the upper levels, a small upper level high is
centered over the SW Caribbean near 11N81W. A small upper level
trough is over the E Caribbean E of 70W with axis along 60W. Upper
level diffluence is E of the trough axis is producing showers in
the Atlantic E of the Windward Islands. Little change is forecast
over the next 24 hours. By Saturday, a weakening cold front will
enter the northwestern Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers remain over the island especially over
the higher terrain. Expect afternoon and evening thunderstorms
during maximum heating Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends over the western Atlantic from 31N72W
to the N Bahamas at 26N79W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of
either side of the front. A surface trough extends over the
central Bahamas from 27N76W to 22N77W supporting scattered
showers from 24N-27N between 71W-77W. A 1026 mb high is over the
central Atlantic near 31N53W. A cold front enters the E Atlantic
near 31N19W and extends to 24N30W to 23N44W, where it transitions
to a stationary front to 23N58W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm of either side of the front. Over the next 24 hours the front
over the western Atlantic will dissipate, while eastern Atlantic
cold front moves E to the Canary Islands with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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