[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will be entering the NW Gulf of Mexico by
early morning Thursday. Gale-force winds are expected to develop
along the Tamaulipas coast north of Tampico in the morning, then
spread southward toward Veracruz during the afternoon hours. The
cold front will continue to move southeast Thursday through early
Saturday. High pressure building over eastern Mexico behind the
front will weaken thereafter allowing the gale winds to subside
by Thursday night. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough crosses the western African coast near 11N15W
and extends to 03N25W, where the ITCZ begins and extends to 04N35W
to 02N52W. Scattered moderate to strong convection are south of
08N, east of 20W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm
north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough axis west of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across southern Louisiana to near
29N88W supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms along and
north of the frontal boundary. High pressure over Georgia and low
pressure over Texas support fresh to strong southerly flow over
the western Gulf and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds
over the majority of the remainder of the gulf. A weak surface
trough lacking convection extends from 27N83W to 24N86W. Winds
become variable near this trough axis. A strong cold front will
enter the northwestern Gulf tonight. Gale force winds will develop
north of the front over the western gulf. Please see the special
features section for more details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination of a surface trough extending across Panama, and
upper level diffluence supports scattered moderate convection
south of a line from 14N84W to 10N75W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms can be found in patches of moisture over
the central and eastern Caribbean. The remainder of the Caribbean
is free of convection. Gentle to moderate easterly winds cover the
northwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterlies are
elsewhere, except light south of the surface trough over the
southwest Caribbean. Little change is forecast over the next 24
hours. By Saturday, a weakening cold front will enter the
northwestern Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over the
terrain will diminish around sunset. Scattered showers will remain
over the coastal sections overnight. Expect a similar weather
pattern for Thursday and Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the western Atlantic from 31N75W to
28N78W to 25N80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within
45 nm of either side of the front. A surface trough extends from
26N77W to 21N75W supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 23N to 26N between 72W and 78W. A cold front
enters the area of discussion near 31N22W and extends to 26N28W to
24N38W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 23N45W to
23N57W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of either side of the
front. A 1026 mb area of high pressure centered near 31N52W
dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic. Over
the next 24 hours the front over the western Atlantic will
dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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