[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030932
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
532 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will be entering the NW Gulf of Mexico by
early morning Thursday. Gale-force winds are expected to develop
along the Tamaulipas coast north of Tampico, then spread southward
toward Veracruz during the afternoon hours. The cold front will
continue to move southeast Thursday through early Saturday. High
pressure building over eastern Mexico behind the front will
weaken thereafter allowing the gale winds to subside late Thursday
night. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough remains over the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 05N22W to 03N37W to 03N51W. Numerous heavy showers
and scattered tstms are coming off Sierra Leone and Liberia,
Africa from 04N to 08N between 10W and 16W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are elsewhere from 0N to 10N W of 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging dominates across the Gulf waters after the
passage of a weak cold front Tuesday. The ridge is anchored by a
1017 mb high over the Florida Panhandle adjacent waters near
28N85W. The high is providing east-southeast gentle to moderate
winds across the basin, except for the NW waters where a tighter
pressure gradient support locally fresh winds. CIRA LPW imagery
show abundant shallow moisture being advected from the Caribbean,
which is supporting overcast skies and fog N of 27N W of 90W. The
center of high pressure will dissipate Wednesday and southeast
return flow will prevail across the Gulf in advance of the next
cold front, which is expected to come off the Texas coast early
Thursday morning. Gale-force winds are expected to develop behind
the front in the southwest Gulf. Please refer to the special
features section for further information.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle level divergent flow along Central America support
scattered to isolated showers from Honduras to Panama as well as
the SW Caribbean waters S of 14N W of 79W. Diffluent flow east of
the base of a middle to upper level short-wave trough just east
of the Bahamas continue to support broken to overcast skies across
Hispaniola with scattered to isolated showers mainly concentrated
in the central and eastern Dominican Republic. Moisture inflow
from South America continue to support similar skies across the SE
basin and the Lesser Antilles S of 17N with most of the islands
reporting showers. Water vapor imagery depict dry air subsidence
elsewhere, which supports fair weather conditions. Light to
moderate trades are across the basin as indicated by latest
scatterometer data. This pattern is expected to continue through
the next 24-48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Diffluent flow east of the base of a middle to upper level short-
wave trough just east of the Bahamas continue to support broken to
overcast skies across Hispaniola with scattered to isolated showers
mainly concentrated in the central and eastern Dominican
Republic. The showers are expected to taper off by Thursday
morning as the trough aloft weakens and drifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is over SW N Atlantic waters extending from
31N76W to southern Florida near 25N80W. Scattered to isolated
showers are observed within 120 nm east of the front, including
the Florida seaboard and the northern Bahamas. Southeast of the
front, a surface trough moves west across the central Bahamas with
possible isolated showers mainly in the windward side of the
islands. A second cold front enters the NE Atlc waters near 31N25W
and continues SW along 25N40W to 22N50W where it starts
dissipating. Isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of the
front. The remainder of the basin west of the front is under the
influence of a broad area of high pressure centered by a 1025 mb
high near 32N55W. Expect for the cold front over the west Atlantic
to stall later today while weakening. This front is expected to
dissipate late tonight. The surface trough across the Bahamas
will dissipate late tonight as it loses its upper-level support.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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