[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 AM EDT Wed May 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will be entering the NW Gulf of Mexico by
early morning Thursday. Gale-force winds are expected to develop
along the Tamaulipas coast north of Tampico, then spread southward
toward Veracruz during the afternoon hours. The cold front will
continue to move southeast Thursday through early Saturday. High
pressure building over eastern Mexico behind the front will
weaken thereafter allowing the gale winds to subside late Thursday
night. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough remains over the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 07N12W to 03N35W to 02N50W. Numerous heavy showers
and scattered tstms are coming off Sierra Leone and Liberia,
Africa from 01N to 07N between 09W and 16W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are elsewhere from 01N to 10N W of 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging dominates across the Gulf waters after the
passage of a weak cold front Tuesday. The ridge is anchored by a
1018 mb high over Pensacola adjacent waters near 29N86W. The high
is providing east-southeast gentle to moderate winds across the
basin, except for the NW waters where a tighter pressure gradient
support fresh winds. CIRA LPW imagery show abundant shallow
moisture being advected from the Caribbean, which is supporting
overcast skies and fog N of 27N W of 90W. The center of high
pressure will dissipate Wednesday and southeast return flow will
prevail across the Gulf in advance of the next cold front, which
is expected to come off the Texas coast early Thursday morning.
Gale-force winds are expected to develop behind the front in the
southwest Gulf. Please refer to the special features section for
further information.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle level divergent flow along Central America support
scattered to isolated showers from Honduras to Panama as well as
the SW Caribbean waters S of 14N W of 79W. Diffluent flow east of
the base of a middle to upper level short-wave trough just east
of the Bahamas continue to support broken to overcast skies across
Hispaniola with scattered showers mainly concentrated in the
central and eastern Dominican Republic. Moisture inflow from South
America continue to support similar skies across the Lesser
Antilles S of 17N with some of the islands reporting showers.
Water vapor imagery depict dry air subsidence elsewhere, which
supports fair weather conditions. Light to moderate trades are
across the basin as indicated by latest scatterometer data. This
pattern is expected to continue through the next 24-48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Diffluent flow east of the base of a middle to upper level short-
wave trough just east of the Bahamas continue to support broken to
overcast skies across Hispaniola with scattered showers mainly
concentrated in the central and eastern Dominican Republic. The
showers are expected to taper off by Thursday morning as the
trough weakens and drifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over SW N Atlantic waters extending from 31N76W
to central Florida near 27N80W. Scattered to isolated showers are
observed within 120 nm east of the front, including the Florida
seaboard and the northern Bahamas. Southeast of the front, a
surface trough moves west across the central Bahamas with possible
isolated showers mainly in the windward side of the islands. A
second cold front enters the NE Atlc waters near 31N26W and
continues SW along 25N40W to 22N50W where it starts dissipating.
Isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of the front. The
remainder of the basin west of the front is under the influence of
a broad area of high pressure centered by a 1025 mb high near
32N55W. Expect for the cold front over the west Atlantic to stall
today while weakening. This front is expected to dissipate late
Wednesday night. The surface trough across the Bahamas will
continue to move west while weakening through Thursday as it loses
its upper-level support.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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