[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
157 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front is entering the NW Gulf of Mexico early this
morning, which will lead to the development of gale-force winds near
1500 UTC today. Gale conditions are expected south of 24N west of
96W as the front extends from the Florida Panhandle SW to near
Tampico, Mexico. High pressure building over the central plains
and over Mexico behind the front will weaken thereafter allowing
the gale winds to subside by Thursday night. Please refer to the
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 10N14W
and extends to 06N16W to 04N20W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 03N36W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01S to 07N west of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough across the central plains supports
a strong cold front that is entering the NW Gulf waters along
29N94W to 28N96W. A warm front is ahead of the cold front
extending from 28N88W to 30N92W. Water vapor and CIRA LPW imagery
show abundant moisture in the north-central basin where upper
level winds diverge to support heavy showers and severe tstms N
of 27N between 87W and 97W. Fresh to near gale southeasterly winds
are ahead and in the vicinity of this area of strong convection.
In addition, dense fog is being reported N of 27N W of 90W with
visibility less than 3 miles. Gale force winds are forecast to
develop in the SW basin later this morning. Please see the
special features section for more details. The front will bring
showers across the central and NE basin Thursday and over central
and southern Florida Friday. The cold front will exit the straits
of Florida early Saturday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Caribbean Sea is very quiet this morning. Shallow convection
is being observed over northern and western Hispaniola being
supported by a middle level diffluent environment just over the
Island. Scattered to isolated showers are also being reported in
the Leeward Islands supported by an upper level trough and shallow
moisture being advected from the tropical Atlc. Latest
scatterometer data show mainly moderate trades across the region,
except for fresh winds off the coast of northern Colombia S of 14N
and in the Gulf of Honduras. Water vapor imagery show dry air
subsidence elsewhere, thus supporting fair weather. Showers will
continue across Hispaniola today and are forecast for the far NW
Caribbean starting Friday as a cold front moves across southern
Florida. The front is forecast to enter NW Caribbean waters early
Saturday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

Shallow convection is being observed over northern and western
Hispaniola being supported by a middle level diffluent environment
just over the Island. These showers will continue through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

With little support aloft, the tail of a stationary front starts
to dissipate this morning from 30N73W to 28N77W. Southeast of this
front, a surface trough races across the western Bahamas
supporting scattered to isolated showers. Broad surface high
pressure dominates the remainder SW N Atlc and central Atlc waters
and provides stable and fair weather conditions. Otherwise, a
broad middle level low north of the area continue to support a
cold front from 30N17W to 22N30W to 22N42W with possible isolated
showers within 90 nm either side of the boundary. A new strong
cold front is forecast to come off NE Florida Friday morning and
move over the northern and central Bahamas Saturday as it weakens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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