[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021702
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

An unusually strong cold front for this late in Spring will be
entering the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning. A strong
barrier jet is expected to form along the eastern slopes of the
Sierra Madre Oriental as the front drives southward. Gale force
winds are expected to develop along the Tamaulipas coast N of
Tampico...then spread southward toward Veracruz during the
afternoon. The cold front will head SE on Thursday night and
Friday. High pressure building over eastern Mexico behind the
front will begin to weaken and shift eastward, allowing the gales
to subside.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough curves SW from the Guinea Bissau coast of
Africa near 12N16W to 08N16W to 05N20W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone continues from 05N20W to 02N36W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is observed from 06N to 08N between 13W and 17W.
Scattered moderate convection is found within 60 nm either side of
a line from 04N27W to 04N34W to 02N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends NE from 26N86W to the Florida coast near
Tampa. A dissipating warm front continues SW from the cold front
to end over the western Gulf near 24N95W. A weak surface trough
heads SSW from just SW of Tampa to Western Cuba. Weak low
pressure is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 22N94W. Broad
ridging and upper-level convergence aloft are inhibiting
convection in the vicinity of all of these features. Weak high
pressure is centered behind the front over the FL panhandle.
Surface observations and satellite-derived wind data show light to
moderate winds generally prevail across the Gulf. The high will
shift northeastward this afternoon as the cold front stalls and
weakens and the warm front dissipates. As the high moves NE it
will set the stage for increasing SE return flow across the Gulf
in advance of the next cold front, which is expected to arrive on
the Texas coast early on Thursday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low pressure moving eastward from the United States mainland is
weakening the ridge to the N of the Caribbean. Moderate trades
prevail over the Caribbean, except along the coasts of Colombia
and Venezuela, where winds are fresh to locally strong in response
to low pressure over Northern Venezuela. This general pattern
will persist for the next day or so as the high remains weakened
in response to the low moving toward the Canadian Maritimes. An
upper-level trough curves SW from Hispaniola to Panama. Upper-
level convergence W of the trough is limiting convection over the
Caribbean, except for near Hispaniola, where daytime heating and
colder air aloft are combining to produce Showers and
thunderstorms over and just south of the Dominican Republic. This
relatively dry pattern is forecast to continue through Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across
the Dominican Republic and the adjacent waters to the south of
the island. The convection is due to the presence of an upper-
level trough extending southward over the Dominican Republic from
a low centered near the southern Bahamas. The showers are forecast
to continue through this evening as the upper level low/trough
linger in the area. The showers are expected to taper off by
Thursday as the trough weakens and moves slowly eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad ridging covers the SW N Atlantic and is centered near
31N57W. A mid to upper-level low centered just N of the southern
Bahamas has induced a surface trough from the Windward Passage to
the Southern Bahamas. An area of cloudiness, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms associated with the trough is affecting
the Turks and Caicos islands as well as the Southern Bahamas from
21N to 25N between 69W and 75W. A cold front extends SW from
32N30W to 27N43W to 25N49W, then continues as a weakening cold
front to 23N58W. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is
dominated by ridging extending eastward from 24N44W to W of Africa
near 24N18W. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are occurring
along a cold front which extends NE from coast of Florida near
cape Canaveral to 32N78W. The front will struggle to reach the
northernmost Bahamas on Wed, but will stall and dissipate before
it does so. The surface trough extending northward from the
Windward Passage to the southern Bahamas will move slowly west and
weaken through Thursday as it loses its upper-level support. The
convection accompanying the trough will decrease accordingly.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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