[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020931
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
531 AM EDT Tue May 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N18W
to 02N31W to the coast of Brazil near 01S50W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 06S to 06N between 18W and 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low NE of Wisconsin is lifting N-NE with
associated trough extending S to over the NE Gulf. This is
providing limited support for a weakening cold front that as of
0600 UTC extends from northern Florida near 28N83W to 26N85W
where it becomes stationary through 24N90W to the Bay of Campeche
near 21N94W. Diffluent flow aloft and shallow moisture ahead of
the front support scattered to isolated showers N of 26N E of the
front, including northern and central Florida. A weak surface
ridge is behind the front anchored by a 1017 mb high SE
of Louisiana near 28N89W, which is expected to move to NE waters
this afternoon as the cold front moves across central Florida.
However, the stationary portion of the front will start to lift
back and become a warm front early Wednesday morning, ahead of the
next cold front to enter the NW basin Wednesday night. Surface
observations showed light to moderate anticyclonic winds across
the northern Gulf behind the front and light variable flow
elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and tstms over S Cuba adjacent waters have diminished.
A middle to upper level low N of the southern Bahamas has an
associated trough that extends S-SW into the central Caribbean.
This trough support cloudiness across Hispaniola and adjacent
waters as well as isolated showers mainly in the Dominican
Republic. Multi-layered clouds are observed over the SE basin
with possible isolated showers across the Windward Islands and
adjacent waters. Water vapor imagery show dry air subsidence
across the remainder basin, thus supporting fair weather. Strong
high pressure over the SW N Atlc leads to the continuation of
fresh to strong winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia and
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate trades are elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are occurring across the Dominican Republic and
Hispaniola's adjacent waters due to a middle to upper-level low
centered north of the southern Bahamas. This shower activity is
forecast to continue through early Wednesday morning as the upper
level low/trough prevails in the region and a surface trough
develops across the Island later today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A vast anticyclone and ridging covers most of the SW N Atlantic
with the main anticyclone centered near 32N59W. A mid to upper-
level low centered N of the southern Bahamas is producing
abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and isolated
thunderstorms affecting the area south of 25N between 66W and 73W.
In the central Atlc, a middle to upper level trough N of 30N
continue to support a weakening cold front that extends from
30N38W to 24N54W where it starts to dissipate. The remainder of
the eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1021 mb high centered between northern Portugal and
Spain. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are off the NE
coast of Florida associated with a weak cold front that is
entering the SW N Atlc waters this morning. This front will push
to northern Bahamas adjacent waters Wed night where it will stall
and then dissipate Thursday. Fresh to strong winds are ahead of
this cold front and are expected to continue through Tuesday
evening. A surface trough will develop over Hispaniola and the
southern Bahamas this afternoon and then move west through
Thursday with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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