[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

An unusually strong cold front for this late in Spring will be
entering the NW Gulf of Mexico by early Thursday. Gale-force
winds are expected to develop along the Tamaulipas coast north of
Tampico, then spread southward toward Veracruz during the
afternoon hours. The cold front will continue moving southeast on
Thursday night and Friday. High pressure building over eastern
Mexico behind the front will begin to weaken and shift eastward,
allowing the gale winds to subside. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough remains over the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 06N15W to 05N34W to 03N55W. Isolated showers are
observed along the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 27N83W to 26N86W. A weak surface trough
was depicted in observations from 26N83W to 23N84W. Isolated
showers are observed along these boundaries. A surface ridge,
anchored by a 1019 mb high centered over the Florida Panhandle,
prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate northerly winds mainly north of the
front and east of 90W while light to gentle easterly winds prevail
elsewhere. The surface high will shift northeastward this
evening as the cold front stalls and dissipates. SEA southeast
return flow will prevail across the Gulf in advance of the next
cold front, which is expected to arrive on the Texas coast by early
Thursday. Gale-force winds will develop behind the front in the
southwest Gulf. Please refer to the section above for more
information.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb
high centered over the central Atlantic. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin mainly
east of 80W, while light to gentle easterlies prevail west of 80W.
An upper-level trough with base over southeastern Caribbean is
supporting cloudiness and isolated showers over portions of
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Leeward and Windward Islands as well as
their adjacent waters. This pattern is expected to continue
through the next 24-48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are occurring across the island and the adjacent
waters. This activity is due to the presence of an upper-level
trough extending southward over the eastern Caribbean with axis
along 68W. The showers are forecast to continue through this
evening as the upper-level trough lingers in the area. The
showers are expected to taper off by Thursday as the trough
weakens and drifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N78W to
28N80W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the front
affecting the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters. To the east,
an upper-level trough is reflected at the surface as a trough that
extends northwest of Hispaniola from 24N74W to 21N73W. Cloudiness
and isolated showers are in the vicinity of this trough
prevailing between 63W- 75W. A cold front extends from 31N28W to
23N54W, then becomes weak from that point to 23N60W. Isolated
showers prevail along the front. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a broad area of high pressure centered by a
1024 mb high near 32N56W. Expect for the cold front over the west
Atlantic to begin weakening and dissipate during the next 24-48
hours. The surface trough north of Hispaniola will move slowly west and
weaken through Thursday as it loses its upper-level support. The
front in the east Atlantic will keep moving east while weakening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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