[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tight pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will produce gale
force S to SW winds N of 30N between 69W-72W for a few more
hours until 15/0000 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
09N13W to 04N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 04N22W to 00N36W to the coast of South America near
03S41W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-07N between 03W-
10W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-07N between 13W-
17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 14/2100 UTC, a small 1024 mb high is centered over the NW
Gulf of Mexico near 29N95W producing fair weather. A reinforcing
cold front extends from S Florida at 26N80W to the SW Gulf at
22N94W. This front is mostly void of precipitation. 15-20 kt N
winds are N of front. Cold air advection is noted over the E
Gulf. In the upper levels, the base of a large longwave trough
is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 82W. Upper level
moisture is over the S Gulf S of 23N. Strong subsidence is N of
23N. Expect over the next 12 hours for the front to move SE into
the Caribbean Sea. Also expect over the next 24 hours for fair
weather and cold air advection to persist.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 14/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from central Cuba near
22N79W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the front. 10-15 kt N winds are N of front.
The remainder of the Caribbean Sea has 10-25 kt tradewinds with
strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers
are over the Windward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the higher elevations of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, N Nicaragua,
Honduras, and Guatemala. More scattered showers and isolated
convection are inland over N Colombia, Panama , and Costa Rica.
In the upper levels, ridging is over the Caribbean axis along
65W. Strong subsidence is over the E Caribbean E of 75W. Upper
level moisture is over the W Caribbean and Central America.
Expect in 24 hours for the tail end of the cold front to extend
from E Cuba to Honduras with showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to low level moisture
in the tradewind flow. Expect in 24 hours for the onset of
additional showers due to prefrontal activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 14/2100 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from
31N70W to central Cuba near 22N79W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the front N of 27N. Scattered
showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the front. A reinforcing
cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N74W to S Florida
at 26N80W. Scattered showers are over the N Bahamas. A surface
trough is over the E Atlantic from 28N34W to 20N35W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Another surface trough
is over the tropical Atlantic E of the Windward Islands from
17N57W to 11N57W moving W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of
this trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough
is over the W Atlantic N of 20N and W of 70W supporting the cold
fronts. Another upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of
20N between 25W-45W. Expect over the next 12 hours for the W
Atlantic fronts to merge. Expect in 24 hours for the resultant
cold front to move E to 31N64W with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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