[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Nor'easter Low north of our area over west Atlantic waters
extends a cold front that enters the forecast waters near 31N74W
and continues along 23N81W to the coast of Belize near 16N88W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are ahead of the front to 69W
N of 25N. S to SW gale force winds are N of 29N E of the front to
67W while SE to S gale winds reach to 71W. A reinforcing cold
front extends from 31N77W SW across central Florida and the
central Gulf of Mexico. Frequent gusts are off the coast of
Jacksonville associated with this second front. These conditions
will continue through Wednesday morning. See the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 04N17W to 03N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
extends from 03N22W SW to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W.
Scattered showers are observed within 90 nm either side of these
boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad middle to upper level low centered over the Great Lakes
supports a Nor'easter low north of our area over west Atlantic
waters from which a reinforcing cold front extends SW crossing
central Florida near 27N82W, the central gulf near 24N90W with
tail reaching the SW basin near 23N96W. A leading cold front
extends along the Florida Straits from 25N80W to 23N82W. Scaterred
to isolated showers are in the southern Gulf between these two
boundaries. A surface ridge anchored over Texas continues to
build across the northern Gulf in the wake of the fronts.
Scatterometer data continue to show moderate to fresh northerly
flow dominating most of the basin. The reinforcing cold front
will continue to move southeast across Florida through tonight
supporting showers. High pressure will then dominate Wedneday and
Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a cold front entered the NW Caribbean earlier this
morning and by 1500 UTC extends across W Cuba near 22N82W to
Belize coastal waters near 17N88W. Diffluence aloft generated by
the upper trough that supports the front and a middle level ridge
centered over Hispaniola support scattered to isolated showers in
the vicinity of the front W of 81W. Patches of low level moisture
continue to move across Hispaniola supporting scattered to
isolated showers mainly across the southern region of the island.
Similar shower activity has started across the Windward Islands as
a screaming eagle over tropical Atlantic waters continue to
approach. Scatterometer data continue to show moderate trades in
the central and eastern basin, except for fresh to strong along
the coast of Colombia and N of the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to
light winds are in the NW basin. The cold front will continue to
move southeast across Cuba and the NW Caribbean through early
morning Thursday, then it will stall while it dissipates through
early Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to isolated showers are observed mainly across the
southern island associated with patches of low level moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow. Shower activity will be limited
through Wed afternoon when the proximity of a cold front to move
across eastern Cuba will produce scattered to heavy showers mainly across
the western half of the Island. Showers are expected to continue
through Friday as a the tail of a reinforcing cold front
approaches the northern waters of the Island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of cold fronts are in the SW N Atlantic waters associated
with a Nor'easter low north of the area. There are two gale
warnings in this region associated with both fronts. For further
details about the gale conditions and fronts associated
convection, please refer to the Special Features section. In the
central Atlantic, the tail of a stationary front weakens along
30N50W to 28N57W. A surface trough extends from 17N52W to 14N53W.
To the east, near-gale winds are along the coast of Morocco and
between the Canary Islands due to a very tight surface pressure
gradient in the area. These winds will weaken tonight.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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