[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Nor'easter Low is developing north of our area over the west
Atlantic with a cold front extending south from the low to 31N78W
to 29N81W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
prevail along and east of the front and low between 73W-79W. The
tight pressure gradient east of the front is producing gale-force
southeast winds over the west Atlantic waters north of 30N between
72W-78W. These conditions will continue through tonight. See the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
16N17W to 05N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from
05N24W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Isolated showers are
observed along these boundaries between 23W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 mb surface low is centered over the northwest Florida near
28N82W. A cold front extends southwest from the low to 21N87W then
across the Yucatan Peninsula to near 17N92W. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 25N81W to 23N85W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are observed in radar imagery currently affecting the eastern
Gulf waters mainly east of 85W and Florida Peninsula. A secondary
cold front extends from 30N86W to 27N90W. No significant
convection is related to this feature at this time. A surface
ridge is building in the wake of the fronts, with a 1025 mb high
centered over northeast Texas. Scatterometer data depicts moderate
to fresh northerly winds prevailing across most of the basin
while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the
front mainly east of 83W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the
surface low to move northeast to the South Carolina coast and
dissipate along a cold front. The cold front will continue moving
southeast over the Florida Peninsula and across the far east Gulf
waters then entering the western Caribbean and west Atlantic with
convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 mb surface low is centered over north Colombia near
10N73W. With this, the pressure gradient is enough to support
fresh to strong easterly winds mainly south of 13N between 73W-76W
as noted in scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere. These winds are transporting low-level moisture across
the basin which is enhancing isolated quick-moving showers across
the area. In the upper levels, ridging is over the Caribbean axis
along 65W. Strong subsidence is over the Caribbean Sea, except
over the NW Caribbean where upper-level moisture is noted. Expect
in 24 hours for the tail end of a cold front to enter the west
Caribbean with convection. This front will continue moving east
across the east and central Caribbean through the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are observed across the island at this time.
Expect through the next 48 hours for convection to increase from
the west as a cold front approaches.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail end of a cold front extends from 31N78W to 29N81W. The
pressure gradient east of this front is strong enough to support
gale-force winds north of 30N between 72W-78W. Please refer to the
section above for details. A stationary front extends across the
central Atlantic analyzed from 31N50W to 28N53W, then weakening to
27N66W. Isolated showers are observed along the northern portion
of the front mainly north of 30N. A surface trough extends from
25N33W to 21N32W. Another trough was analyzed from 17N52W to
14N53W. To the east, near-gale to gale-force winds are along the
coast of Morocco and between the Canary Islands due to a very
tight surface pressure gradient in the area. These winds will
weaken tonight. Expect during the next 24 hours for the west
Atlantic cold front to continue moving east with convection. The
central Atlantic front will dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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