[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
118 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tight pressure gradient over the west Atlantic in the vicinity
of two fronts will continue to produce gale-force southwest winds
north of 30N between 65W-68W through 15/0600 UTC. See the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 04N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N17W
to the coast of South America near 03S41W. Isolated moderate
convection is observed within 100 nm north of these boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across most of the Gulf waters in the
wake of a cold front that currently extends over the southern
portion of the basin. The ridge is anchored by a 1024 mb high
centered over the northwest Gulf near 29N94W producing fair
weather. The reinforcing cold front extends from the Florida
Straits near 24N80W to 22N94W. This front is mostly void of
precipitation. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
northerly winds north of the front while gentle southerly winds
prevail south of the front. Cold air advection is noted over the
basin. Expect during the next 12 hours for the front to enter
the west Caribbean Sea. Over the next 24 hours, fair weather and
cold air advection will persist across the Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba near 22N79W to the Gulf of
Honduras near 16N88W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are within
90 nm of the front. Gentle northerly winds prevail north of the
front while moderate to fresh trades prevail across the remainder
of the basin. The strongest winds persist over the waters north of
Colombia mainly south of 14N between 68W-74W. A reinforcing cold
front will enter the west Caribbean in 24 hours and merge with
the front previously described. This new front will then extend
from east Cuba to Honduras with showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

No significant convection is observed across the island at this
time. Expect in 24 hours for showers to develop from the west due
to prefrontal activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N68W to
central Cuba near 22N78W. A reinforcing cold front extends from
31N72W to the Florida Straits at 24N80W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm east of the first front mainly north
of 27N. A Gale Warning is in effect for the area near these
fronts. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface
trough is over the south-central Atlantic extending from 17N58W
to 11N57W. Another trough was analyzed to the east extending from
26N34W to 18N38W. No significant convection is related to these
features at this time. Expect during the next 12 hours for the
fronts in the west Atlantic to merge. The resultant cold front
will move east enhancing convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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