[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1255 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The conditions starting at 07/0000 UTC: NE-to-E gale-force winds,
and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 14 feet, in the coastal
waters of Colombia, from 10.5N to 13N between 73W and 77W. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W, to 07N17W. The ITCZ is along the Equator at 19W, to
01S28W, to the Equator along 37W, to the Equator along 50W.
Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong
from 07N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving through central sections of the
U.S.A. Upper level SW wind flow is moving across Texas. S-to-SW
wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb moves from the south central Gulf
of Mexico across and beyond Louisiana. SE wind flow from 600 mb to
800 mb is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper level SW wind
flow moves from interior sections of Mexico into the Gulf of
Mexico from 90W westward. Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow
is moving from the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, into the
Atlantic Ocean, as part of the large-scale cyclonic wind flow that
is in the Atlantic Ocean.

A surface ridge passes through north central Florida, the Florida
Big Bend and the Florida Panhandle, into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KXIH, KGUL, KHQI, KVQT, and KGRY.

MVFR: KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KEHC, KVBS, KGHB, KEIR, KSPR,
KATP, KMDJ, KIKT, KVOA, KVKY, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR/MVFR everywhere, from the Lower Valley to the Houston
metropolitan area and surrounding smaller communities, to
Huntsville, and from Beaumont/Port Arthur to Jasper. LOUISIANA:
IFR/MVFR from Baton Rouge southward and southwestward. light rain
around the NW corner of Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR from
Natchez to Hattiesburg. ALABAMA and FLORIDA: VFR.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area to the east of
the line that runs from the SE coast of Nicaragua to SW Haiti.
Upper level NW wind flow is moving through the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Broad anticyclonic wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb
spans the entire area.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
mainly from 15N northward, and from 15N southward from 77W
eastward.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 07/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.03 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is moving across
Hispaniola. E-to-SE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is moving
across the area. Rainshowers are possible inland and in the
coastal waters. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: VFR. La
Romana/Punta Cana: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet in each location.
VFR. earlier light rain in Santo Domingo ended an hour ago.
Santiago: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. Puerto Plato:
MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours, with a ridge that
will extend from Colombia beyond the border of Nicaragua/Costa
Rica. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that the wind flow
will be from the NW-to-W during most of day one. Anticyclonic wind
flow will follow, with a NE-to-SW oriented ridge, from the end of
day one through the first half of day two. The ridge will move to
the south of Hispaniola, into the Caribbean Sea, bringing NE-to-E
wind flow, for the rest of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that an inverted trough will cover Hispaniola for the
first 12 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. Anticyclonic wind
flow cover the area during the rest of day one. Day two will start
with an inverted trough for the first 12 hours or so, followed by
NE wind flow for the rest of the time.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Deep layer cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
from 20N northward from 40W westward. A cold front passes through
32N40W to 26N47W. The front becomes stationary, from 26N47W to
20N60W, across parts of Puerto Rico, to 17N73W in the Caribbean
Sea. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the
north and northwest of the line that passes through 32N38W to
20N50W, to 15N54W, 15N70W in the Caribbean Sea, and beyond 15N83W,
including in central America, from northern Nicaragua northward.

An upper level trough extends from a 25N22W cyclonic circulation
center, to 21N26W and 09N35W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N27W to 27N35W 22N44W, and
18N58W. A second surface ridge is along 26N51W 28N64W beyond
32N73W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net