[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
624 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warnings...

A strong pressure gradient generated between the high pressure
centered over the west Atlantic near 35N75W and lower pressure
analyzed across northwestern South America will support near-gale
to gale-force winds each night and early morning within about 90
nm of the NW coast of Colombia. These conditions will continue
through Thursday night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The strong high pressure described above is also enhancing winds
over the Windward Passage coupled with a cold front that currently
extends from 19N63W to 17N73W. Near-gale to gale-force easterly
winds are expected across the Windward Passage region and adjacent
Caribbean Sea waters through the next 24 hours. See the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
01N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
01N18W to the Equator near 20W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 02N-05N between 22W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle to upper level ridging continues building in over the Gulf
basin this afternoon. At the surface...the southwestern periphery
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high centered across the
west Atlantic near 35N75W is providing fresh to strong easterly
winds east of 90W while moderate to fresh southeasterly winds
prevail west of 90W. The wind field is forecast to gradually
diminish through Tuesday night with the next weak frontal boundary
expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast by late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the near-gale to gale-force winds forecast across the
Windward Passage region today and off the coast of Colombia the
next few days (see section above for details), dry and stable air
aloft prevails across the basin along with fairly tranquil
conditions at the surface. The primary feature impacting the basin
is the tip of a cold front, analyzed from 18N66W to 17N73W.
Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm on either side of
the front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong
northeasterly winds across the basin, with highest speeds
prevailing across the northern half of the basin. The high
pressure will be anchored across the west Atlantic region for
much of the week ahead, therefore, little change is expected.

...HISPANIOLA...

A cold front extends south of the island bringing cloudiness and
isolated showers to the region. Aside from the near-gale to gale-
force northeast winds occurring in the Windward Passage area,
fresh to strong easterly winds are expected to continue across the
island through Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic north of 20N
west of 60W. A cold front extends from 32N42W to 18N66W. Isolated
showers are observed along the front mainly north of 28N. A
surface ridge prevails across the eastern Atlantic anchored by a
1034 mb high centered near 37N14W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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