[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
656 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The conditions starting at 07/0600 UTC: NE-to-E gale-force winds,
and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, in the coastal
waters of Colombia, from 10N to 14N between 73W and 77W. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

A second area of gale-force winds is in the Caribbean Sea, to the
north of 16N between 73W and 76W, including in the Windward
Passage. Expect NE gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from
10 feet to 13 feet. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to
03N22W, 01N30W and 01N39W. Convective precipitation: Isolated
moderate to locally strong from 07N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving through central sections of the
U.S.A. Upper level SW wind flow is moving across Texas. Southerly
wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb moves from the south central Gulf
of Mexico across and beyond Louisiana as SW wind flow. SE wind
flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula
into the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level SW wind flow moves from
interior sections of Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
westward. Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow has been moving
from the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida and through the Straits of
Florida, into the Atlantic Ocean, as part of the large-scale
cyclonic wind flow that is in the Atlantic Ocean.

A surface ridge passes through north central Florida, the Florida
Big Bend and the Florida Panhandle, into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. A separate 1017 mb high pressure center is near
22N97W, along the coast of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KMZG, KGUL, KVQT, and KGRY.

MVFR: KBBF, KBQX, KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KHQI, KEHC, KGHB, KEIR,
KSPR, KATP, KMDJ, KIKT, KVOA, KMIS, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR/IFR everywhere, from the Lower Valley to the Houston
metropolitan area and surrounding smaller communities, to
Huntsville, and from Beaumont/Port Arthur to Jasper. LOUISIANA:
IFR/MVFR from Baton Rouge southward. some light rain has been
reported around Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: IFR from Natchez
to Hattiesburg. light rain in Hattiesburg has stopped for the
moment. ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR in Mary Esther.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area to the east of
the line that runs from the SE coast of Nicaragua to SW Haiti.
Upper level NW wind flow is moving through the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Broad anticyclonic wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb
spans the entire area.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
mainly from 14N northward, and from 14N southward from 77W
eastward.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 07/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.03 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is moving across
Hispaniola. E-to-SE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is moving
across the area. Rainshowers are possible inland and in the
coastal waters. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona:
VFR. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. this
observation is the first one with no ceiling, after several
observations with a ceiing of 1600 feet in each location.
Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plato: light rain.
MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours, with a ridge that
will extend from Colombia beyond the border of Nicaragua/Costa
Rica. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that the wind flow
will be from the NW-to-W during most of day one. Anticyclonic wind
flow will follow, with a NE-to-SW oriented ridge, from the end of
day one through the first half of day two. The ridge will move to
the south of Hispaniola, into the Caribbean Sea, bringing NE-to-E
wind flow, for the rest of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that an inverted trough will cover Hispaniola for the
first 12 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. Anticyclonic wind
flow cover the area during the rest of day one. Day two will start
with an inverted trough for the first 12 hours or so, followed by
NE wind flow for the rest of the time.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Deep layer cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
from 20N northward from 40W westward. A cold front passes through
32N39W to 26N47W. The front becomes stationary, from 26N47W to
19N59W. A shear line continues from 19N59W, across the NE
Caribbean Sea islands, to 16N68W in the Caribbean Sea. A surface
trough curves from 22N49W to 21N52W and 18N53W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the north and
northwest of the line that passes through 32N37W to 20N50W, to
15N65W, 15N70W in the Caribbean Sea, and beyond 14N83W along the
coast of Nicaragua, including in central America, from northern
Nicaragua northward.

An upper level trough extends from a 27N18W cyclonic circulation
center, to 20N23W and 10N34W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N26W to 25N35W and 20N46W.
A second surface ridge is along 30N53W 25N62W 28N72W beyond
32N72W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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