[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The conditions starting at 03/0600 UTC: Expect for the next 9
hours or so, NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 10 feet to 15 feet, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from
10.5N to 13N between 74W and 78W. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The current conditions starting at 03/0600 UTC: A cold front is
along 26.5N82W 24N95W 18.5N94W. Expect gale-force NW winds and
sea heights building to 8 feet to 11 feet, to the south of 21N
within 60 nm of Veracruz in Mexico. Expect these conditions to be
weakening with time, and at less than gale-force during the next
hour or so. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast
for the area: AGADIR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N15W to the Equator along 27W, to 03S38W.
Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 04N southward
between 19W and 29W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from
05N to 06N between 12W and 15W, and from 02N to 05N between 48W
and 52W in parts of Brazil and coastal French Guiana.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area,
and in the Atlantic Ocean on top the current cold front. A cold
front passes through 32N68W, to a 1019 mb low pressure center that
is near 27N79W. The cold front crosses South Florida near 26N81W,
and it continues to 25N90W and 24N96W and 17N94W in the northern
half of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 17N
in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, to 22N between 93W and 96W.
Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through
32N63W to 25N80W in the Straits of Florida; and elsewhere in
broken to overcast multilayered clouds that cover much of the
Gulf of Mexico, especially from 25N northward, and from 90W
westward.

Surface high pressure passes through the deep south of Texas,
through the coastal plains of Mexico, between the coast and
100W, toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read
theEastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KBBF.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR in Naples and Marathon
Key, and in parts of the Key West metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE-to-E middle level-to-upper level wind flow is moving through
the Caribbean Sea. Some of the 350 mb to 500 mb flow becomes
anticyclonic just to the west and northwest of Jamaica. The wind
flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is: from the NE from 15N northward from
70W westward, from the SE-to-E near the Netherlands Antilles, and
from the NE from Jamaica westward.

Rainshowers are possible across the Caribbean Sea, in areas of
broken low level clouds, mostly to the east of 77W, and from
Jamaica southwestward to interior sections of Nicaragua and
Honduras.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 03/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.03 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

E wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb is moving across the area. SE
wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also is moving across Hispaniola.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC:
Santo Domingo/La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: nearby rainshowers.
MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a ridge will be on
top of Hispaniola for the first 12 hours or so of the 48-hour
forecast period. SW wind flow will move across the area for the
rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that
the wind flow will be from the NE to E to SE during day one. A
trough will move across Hispaniola during the first 6 hours to 12
hours of day two, as a cyclonic circulation center moves to the
south of the Mona Passage. NE wind flow will move across the area
during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. An E-to-W oriented
ridge will extend from the Yucatan Peninsula to Hispaniola.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that anticyclonic wind
flow with a ridge will cover the area for the first 12 hours or
so. Multiple inverted troughs will move across Hispaniola during
the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect broad cyclonic
wind flow with the troughs.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is near 24N72W.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the
northwest of the 32N13W 16N60W trough.

An upper level trough passes through 32N13W, to a 25N32W cyclonic
circulation center, to 21N45W 17N56W and 16N60W. A cold front
passes through 32N14W to 29N20W 29N30W, to a 1026 mb low pressure
center that is near 27N33W, to 23N40W and 22N45W. Convective
precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 10N northward
between Africa and 65W.

A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 27N09W in the northeastern
part of the Western Sahara. A surface trough extends from the low
center to 28N18W. Please read the paragraph in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section about gale-force winds in the area of METEO-
FRANCE.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the
north and northwest of the 32N14W-22N45W cold front. A surface
ridge extends from a 1032 mb high pressure center that is near
33N38W, through 32N43W, to 27N54W 26N63W, to 24N77W near the
Bahamas, and to 23N88W in the Gulf of Mexico.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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