[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The conditions starting at 03/0000 UTC: Expect for the next 15
hours or so, NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 10 feet to 15 feet, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from
10N to 13.5N between 74W and 77W. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The current conditions starting at 03/0000 UTC: A cold front is
along 27N82W 24N95W 19N96W. Expect gale-force NW-to-N winds and
sea heights reaching 9 feet, from 22N to 23N to the W OF 97W.
Expect these conditions for the next 12 hours or so.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas: AGADIR and CANARIAS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to
02N20W, to the Equator along 27W, to 03S35W and 03S40W at the
coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from
02N southward between 05W and 08W, and from 04N18W 03N25W 02N33W
southward between 18W and 33W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 03N southward between 35W and 43W, and from 03N to 04N
between 48W and 50W. Rainshowers are possible from 13N southward
between 40W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area.
A cold front passes through 32N73W, to the Florida east coast near
28N81W, to 25N90W in the Gulf of Mexico, to 24N95W, and curving to
19N96W. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, along
92W/93W, from 18N in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to 23N. clonic
wind flow spans the entire area. Convective precipitation:
Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through
Bermuda to 25N80W. Isolated moderate from 25N southward from 94W
westward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover much of the
Gulf of Mexico, especially from 25N northward, and from 90W
westward.

Surface high pressure passes through the deep south of Texas,
through the coastal plains of Mexico, between the coast and
100W, toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read
theEastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KBBF.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR in Sarasota.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE-to-E middle level-to-upper level wind flow is moving through
the Caribbean Sea. Some of the 350 mb to 500 mb flow becomes
anticyclonic just to the west and northwest of Jamaica. The wind
flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is: from the NE from 15N northward from
70W westward, from the SE-to-E near the Netherlands Antilles, and
from the NE from Jamaica westward.

Rainshowers are possible across the Caribbean Sea, in areas of
broken low level clouds, mostly to the east of 73W, and from
Jamaica southwestward to interior sections of Nicaragua and
Honduras.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 03/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.03 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

E wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb is moving across the area. SE
wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also is moving across Hispaniola.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a ridge will be on
top of Hispaniola for the first 12 hours or so of the 48-hour
forecast period. SW wind flow will move across the area for the
rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that
the wind flow will be from the NE to E to SE during day one. A
trough will move across Hispaniola during the first 6 hours to 12
hours of day two, as a cyclonic circulation center moves to the
south of the Mona Passage. NE wind flow will move across the area
during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. An E-to-W oriented
ridge will extend from the Yucatan Peninsula to Hispaniola.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that anticyclonic wind
flow with a ridge will cover the area for the first 12 hours or
so. Multiple inverted troughs will move across Hispaniola during
the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect broad cyclonic
wind flow with the troughs.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is near 24N71W.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the
northwest of the 32N21W 16N60W trough.

An upper level trough passes through 32N21W, to a 26N32W cyclonic
circulation center, to 22N41W 18N52W and 16N60W. A cold front
passes through 32N17W to 29N25W 29N35W, to a 1025 mb low pressure
center that is near 28N34W, to 23N40W and 23N43W. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate from 26N to 29N between 31W and
36W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N northward
between Africa and 65W.

A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 29N11W in southern Morocco.
A surface trough extends from the low center to 28N15W and 28N19W.
Please read the paragraph in the SPECIAL FEATURES section about
gale-force winds in the area of METEO-FRANCE.

A surface ridge extends from a 1034 mb high pressure center
that is near 34N38W, through 32N44W, to 29N56W 26N65W, to 25N75W
near the Bahamas, across Cuba, into the Gulf of Honduras.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net