[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Winds will once again pulse to gale force overnight tonight
within about 90 nm of the northwest coast of Colombia as the
nocturnal pressure gradient tightens over the area. Seas are
forecast to build to 11 ft across this area late tonight and
persist through the morning. This same pattern is forecast to
repeat itself tomorrow night with winds reaching 40 kt and seas
building to 16 ft. See the latest High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front is moving into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Strong high pressure building behind the front is supporting gale
force winds over the southwestern Gulf from 22N to 24N W of 97W,
then shifting south of 21N to the W of 95W tonight. Seas will
build to 11 ft with this gale. The gale force winds will last
until 1200 UTC Friday morning. See the latest High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to the equator at
30W to the coast of South America at 02S43W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted from 03N to 02S between 17W
and 30W, and from 02N to 06S between 30W and 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from neat Tampa Bay Florida
through 25N90W to 24N96W then south to 20N97W. Strong to gale
force N to NE winds are occurring northwest of the front. The
strongest winds are expected within 60-90 NM of the coast of
Mexico S of 22N. Please refer to the special features section
above for more details.

Broken to overcast low and mid clouds with scattered showers were
noted along and within 60 to 90 nm northwest of the front. A
surface trough was over the Bay of Campeche, extending from 23N93W
to 18N94W. Scattered showers along with moderate to fresh winds
are within 90 nm of either side of the trough axis. Generally
benign conditions with gentle winds are occurring over the
remainder of the gulf southeast of the advancing cold front.

The cold front is forecast to sweep rapidly southeast and exit
the southeastern Gulf by mid-morning Fri with an area of fresh to
strong NE to E winds impacting the entire Gulf. The maintenance
of strong high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will keep
fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the Gulf into Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure over the central Atlantic and climatological
lower pressures over Colombia continue to support persistent
fresh to strong trades over most of the Caribbean south of 18N.
Winds near the coast of Colombia have been pulsing to gale force
at night and will continue to do so the next several nights,
possibly reaching 40 kt with seas to 16 FT Fri night. Refer to the
special features section for more details. Moderate to fresh
northeast winds cover the northwest Caribbean.

A cold front currently in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to enter
the northwest Caribbean by late Fri and extend from central Cuba
to the Yucatan peninsula by late Sat. Strong high pressure
building behind this front will bring increasing northeasterly
winds to the northwest Caribbean Friday with fresh to strong winds
expanding over the entire Caribbean W of 70W. Locally higher
winds are expected in the Windward Passage by late Sat. These
winds will continue into early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Water vapor imagery depicts moderate to strong subsidence over
the island with easterly flow aloft. This was confirmed by the
1200 UTC Santo Domingo rawindsonde which showed NE to E winds
from the surface through 300 MB. The total precipitable water of
1.15 inches in the sounding confirmed the overall dry airmass in
the area. Little change is expected in the pattern through the
weekend with isolated showers in fresh to strong trade wind flow
continuing to stream across the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front is moving the through the northwest
portions of the area, extending from 32N75W to the east coast of
Florida just south of Daytona Beach. Increasing northerly winds
are occurring northwest of the front. Broken to overcast low and
mid clouds with scattered showers were noted along and within 90
to 120 nm northwest of the front.

A sprawling 1032 mb high centered near 36N40W dominates the remainder
of the western Atlantic and most of the central Atlantic. The only
exception is a cold front that extends into the area of discussion
through 32N37W to a weak 1022 MB low pressure near 29N34W, to
25N42W. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms were noted
within 120 nm of the low center.

The cold front moving off the southeast U.S. will continue to
move southeast and extend from Bermuda to south Florida by Fri
morning, and from 31N56W to east-central Cuba by early Sat. A
large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds will develop N of the
front and W of 65W by Sat. The low over the central Atlantic
will move eastward while slowly dissipating through Fri.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cobb
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