[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1229 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Winds will once again pulse to gale force overnight tonight
within about 90 nm of the northwest coast of Colombia as the
nocturnal pressure gradient tightens over the area. Seas are
forecast to build to 13 ft across this area late tonight and
persist through the morning. This same pattern is forecast to
repeat itself the next several nights. See the latest High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will cross the southwestern Gulf today. Strong high
pressure building behind the front will support gale force winds
over the southwestern Gulf from 22N to 24N W of 97W beginning this
afternoon, then shifting south of 21N to the W of 95W tonight.
Seas will build to 10 ft with this gale. The gale force winds
will last until 1200 UTC Friday morning. See the latest High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 03S35W to the
coast of South America at 00S51W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is south of 06N between 16W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 26N90W to
22N98W. Strong to near gale northeast winds are northwest of the
cold front. Scattered showers are along and within 90 nm
northwest of the cold front. A surface trough covers the the
southwestern Gulf from 23N92W to 17N94W. Scattered showers along
with moderate to fresh winds are within 90 nm of either side of
the trough axis. Generally benign conditions with gentle winds are
currently elsewhere over the Gulf basin this morning. This
afternoon, a gale will begin over the southwestern Gulf behind the
cold front and then shift southward toward the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico later tonight. Please see the special features section for
more details. By Friday morning, the cold front will exit the
southeastern Gulf, while the western portion stalls over the
eastern Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure over the central Atlantic and
climatological lower pressures over Colombia continue to support
persistent fresh to strong trades over most of the Caribbean south
of 18N. Winds near the coast of Colombia have been pulsing to
gale force at night and will continue to do so the next several
nights. Please see the special features section for more details.
Moderate to fresh northeast winds cover the northwest Caribbean.
Over the next 24 hours a cold front will approach the northwestern
Caribbean. High pressure building behind this front will bring
increasing northeasterly winds to the northwest Caribbean Friday
through Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers in fresh to strong trade wind flow will continue
to stream across the island. This pattern will continue the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is just now entering the waters off the coast of
northern Florida and Georgia. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
northwest of the front. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the frontal boundary. A 1032 mb
high centered near 36N40W dominates the remainder of the western
Atlantic and most of the central Atlantic. The exception is a cold
front that extends into the area of discussion near 31N30W,
through a 1022 mb low near 29N34W, to 25N43W, Numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the low center. Over
the next 24 hours the cold front will continue to move southeast
and extend from Bermuda to south Florida by 1200 UTC Friday. The
low over the central Atlantic will move eastward while slowly
dissipating.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

LATTO
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